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Nice Weather FALLing by the Wayside

Josh Larson @ 11:00 PM

As Dan mentioned in his post yesterday, our weather is about to take a major nose dive downhill, as we'll see a depressing mix of low clouds, times of drizzle and rain, and raw temperatures for much of the holiday weekend. Model discrepancies and a sharp expected gradient to the northward extent of precipitation, however, lends to unusually low forecast confidence.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighNoticeably different. After yesterday's sunshine and very mild temperatures in the mid 80s, we'll look for a dramatic 20 degree drop in temperatures and quickly increasing cloud cover today. Though some peaks of sunshine are possible during the morning hours, we'll have mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon with a high only in the mid 60s. A few widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon into the overnight period, with lows dropping to the upper 40s to low 50s.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighYuck! Expect thick overcast skies on Friday with breezy NE winds (off the ocean) from 10-15mph and periodic times of scattered showers or drizzle, especially south and east of town. Highs will probably not make it out of the mid 50s in many locations. Same deal for Friday night, with dense overcast, and periods of rain and drizzle, with raw lows in the upper 40s. Once again, areas to the south and east are most likely to see the steadiest rainfall.

The Holiday Weekend

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighContinued gross. Sometimes, especially during the fall and spring transition seasons, we have no choice but to surrender the weekend to mother nature; that will be the case for this weekend with a pesky low spinning over our area.

Expect overcast skies with periodic showers or drizzle (once again more likely to our south and east) and a NE wind from 10-15mph. Highs Saturday may attempt to hit 60, but don't ask for anything more. Cloudy and cool overnight Saturday with lows from 50-55. For Sunday, expect a lowering chances for measureable rain, but we'll still be socked in the clouds and dense overcast courtesy of easterly winds and a "marine layer"; somewhat milder temperatures may range from 60 (south and east) to 70 (north and west).

For Monday, Columbus Day, expect the first meaningful attempt and clearing and sunshine. I expect that the first half of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy, but the sun will return by afternoon with noticeably milder highs in the mid 70s in most spots. Mostly clear and comfortable Monday night with lows in the 50s.


Pattern Overview
The culprit responsible for this weekend's expected cloudy, damp weather is a dreaded cut-off low which, a type of low that often spins lazily in one location before deciding what to do. In this case, it will bring us easterly or northeasterly flow most of the weekend with drizzle and periodic showers from late today through Sunday; because of the expected trajectory of the low, areas to the south and east of DC will likely see the most rain.

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 69/50 (normal = 70/51)
Forecast precip: Below normal

Next Tuesday is likely to feature partly to mostly sunny skies with pleasant temperatures near 70 for highs, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to near 50. By Wednesday, however, we're likely to get a push of colder air as a trough builds over the Northeast. As such, Wednesday through Friday appears to feature mostly sunny skies and very fall-like weather: highs will likely be in the mid 60s, with overnight lows primarily from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Brrrrr.

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