Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Late October Conditions Through Thursday
Matt Ross @ 1:00 AM
The next few days will be dry and mild. A cold front will pass through our area on Friday which will usher in much colder conditions for the beginning of December.
Today
Partly Sunny, Mild. After some morning fog, we will see a mix of clouds and sun today. It will feel more like late October or early November with afternoon highs in the low 60s.
Tonight and Tomorrow
Same as Today. Tonight will be clear and cool. Overnight lows will hit the low to mid 40s. Wednesday will be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s. See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.
We continue to experience a strengthening El Nino event. As indicated very clearly above, sea surface temperatures are averaging more than 1 degree Celsius above normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean stretching from the South American coast thousands of miles west along the equator. Satellite image courtesy of National Weather Service.
November Recap
Although we still have 3 days left, it is pretty clear how November will finish. Currently we are running about 1 degree above normal for the month. Given the mild conditions expected over the next 3 days, we could finish as high as 1.5 degrees above normal for the month. 18 of the 30 days will have finished above normal, versus just 12 below. November will be the only above average month of the Fall as September and October finished colder than normal. Precipitation ran well above normal for the 3rd straight month and we are on pace to finish the year with over 125% of normal precip. Only 3 other Autumns since 1950(1985, 1996, 2003) have finished with above normal precipitation in all 3 months of the season.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Wednesday, December 6th - Thursday, December 7th
Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: We are still over a week away, but there has been some model indication for a storm in this time period. With a strong High pressure indicated to our northwest and moisture potentially streaming in from the Tennessee Valley, the pattern might support an overrunning scenario with the precip slowly running into the cold air. Models have been very unreliable of late, and thus confidence is extremely low at this time. In the shorter term, the front this Friday will be a rainmaker with cold air arriving after the precip leaves. Stay tuned for updates as warranted.
Today
Partly Sunny, Mild. After some morning fog, we will see a mix of clouds and sun today. It will feel more like late October or early November with afternoon highs in the low 60s.Tonight and Tomorrow
Same as Today. Tonight will be clear and cool. Overnight lows will hit the low to mid 40s. Wednesday will be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s. See Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend. We continue to experience a strengthening El Nino event. As indicated very clearly above, sea surface temperatures are averaging more than 1 degree Celsius above normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean stretching from the South American coast thousands of miles west along the equator. Satellite image courtesy of National Weather Service.
November Recap
Although we still have 3 days left, it is pretty clear how November will finish. Currently we are running about 1 degree above normal for the month. Given the mild conditions expected over the next 3 days, we could finish as high as 1.5 degrees above normal for the month. 18 of the 30 days will have finished above normal, versus just 12 below. November will be the only above average month of the Fall as September and October finished colder than normal. Precipitation ran well above normal for the 3rd straight month and we are on pace to finish the year with over 125% of normal precip. Only 3 other Autumns since 1950(1985, 1996, 2003) have finished with above normal precipitation in all 3 months of the season.
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Wednesday, December 6th - Thursday, December 7th
Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: We are still over a week away, but there has been some model indication for a storm in this time period. With a strong High pressure indicated to our northwest and moisture potentially streaming in from the Tennessee Valley, the pattern might support an overrunning scenario with the precip slowly running into the cold air. Models have been very unreliable of late, and thus confidence is extremely low at this time. In the shorter term, the front this Friday will be a rainmaker with cold air arriving after the precip leaves. Stay tuned for updates as warranted.
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