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Stormy, then Clearing and Cooler
Tornado Watch In Effect

Josh Larson @ 3:02 PM

A potent trough of low pressure will push into the region today, bringing weather more befitting of September than November: we'll look for mild temperatures, heavy rain, and the potential for thunderstorms, high winds, and maybe even isolated tornadoes. Thereafter, however, we'll revert back to a cooler (and noticeably drier) pattern that should last most of next week.


*NOTE*: The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a TORNADO WATCH for the immediate DC metro area through 6pm. Click for local radar; see comment area for more discussion.

Forecast Confidence: HighStormy. Expect overcast skies with scattered showers during the morning hours. It is likely that a squall line will develop during the early afternoon, which may bring torrential rain, some thunderstorms, and isolated areas of high winds (20-40mph+) through the early evening hours. Note that our region has a slight risk of severe storms, and that up to 1-2+" of rain may fall. Expect balmy afternoon highs near 65 despite thick cloud cover. Lingering showers should clear out of the area by mid-evening tonight, with partial clearing and lows in the mid 40s.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMuch improved. After a few lingering morning clouds and breezy conditions, we'll see mostly sunny afternoon skies with highs in the mid 50s. Clear and noticeably cooler overnight with lows from the mid 30s to near 40 downtown.

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighQuiet weatherwise. We'll have thoroughly benign fall weather on tap for the weekend (a welcome relief after today's storminess), with both days featuring a blend of clouds and sun and slightly below-normal temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid 50s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.


Pattern Overview
An abnormally sharp trough aloft (depicted at right) will be responsible for the wild weather over the next 24 hours as cool air from the north and west battles it out with a surge of warm, moist Gulf air. Luckily, however, it appears that starting Friday and lasting well into next week we'll be looking at largely dry (for a change) weather pattern with temperatures at slightly below-normal levels. At this time at least, there are no organized storm systems on the horizon through next Thursday.

Above: the NAM's representation of an uncharacteristically sharp trough aloft responsible for today's wild weather; courtesy

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 52/37 (normal = 55/38)
Forecast precip: Above normal

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighExpect a blend of clouds and sun on Monday with chilly temperatures struggling to eclipse the 50 degree mark; chilly, too, overnight, with lows from 30-35. Tuesday through Thursday look to feature varying amounts of clouds and sun with low chances for precipitation and high temperatures in the low to mid 50s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. Showers and possibly turning cooler on Friday.

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