Thursday, November 30, 2006
Warmth Departs & Winter Returns!
Josh Larson @ 11:30 AM
Look for another 48 hours of balmy weather before a major cold front comes barreling through late Friday (with scattered showers and high winds, to boot). This frontal passage will set the stage for a prolonged period of below normal temperatures over the following week to ten days.
Cloudy & Balmy. We'll look for morning fog with partly sunny conditions for the first half of the day; despite the fact that skies will become mostly cloudy by the afternoon a copious supply of warm southerly air (with breezes 10-15mph) will push highs to near 70! A rogue shower may pop up in a few spots during the second half of the day. Overcast tonight with a stray shower and exceptionally mild lows near 60.
Hold onto your hats! Friday will feature overcast skies and very mild temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Scattered showers (perhaps up to .20") are probable, but the vast majority of steadier, accumulating rain will remain well to the north and west of the DC Metro area. There is a slight chance for a few heavy, gusty thunderstorms, but I think the major story will be the high winds, which may gust 30-60mph at times. Turning sharply colder overnight, with lows in the upper 30s.
Cooler but Pleasant. Expect morning clouds and very breezy conditions Saturday morning, giving way to partly sunny afternoon skies with a lingering breeze; highs will be near 50 with overnight lows from the 30-35. Mostly sunny on Sunday, with temperatures nearly steady: expect highs in the upper 40s to near 50 with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for lows.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Snow: Monday, December 4th
Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Though highly unlikely, it is too early to completely write off the potential for some white stuff for our area from a coastal storm developing at the start of next week; however, almost all models keep the precipitation from this system well to our east. A better chance (but still quite low) of a few flakes could be over the NW suburbs Monday afternoon or evening as another shot of cold air pushes south and east from the Great Lakes.
Pattern Overview
Pronounced ridging over the southeast US will be responsible for the next two days of cloudy and unseasonably warm weather, but a deep trough and associated area of low pressure will push through by Saturday, and odds are that some version of a trough over the Northeast will linger all of next week, keeping us locked into below normal temperatures. Unfortunately for snow-lovers, next week also looks to be predominately dry.
Pictured above: the GFS' representation of a deep trough over the eastern US at the start of next week, which will allow cold air to filter southward from eastern Canada into our area; courtesy Unisys.com.
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 44/29 (normal = 50/34)
Forecast precip: Below normal
Expect mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on Monday with the aforementioned slightest chance of a few flakes, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows from 25-30. Tuesday will feature partly sunny skies with highs in the low 40s and lows in the 20s. Wednesday through Friday look dry from this vantage point, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs mostly from 40-45 and overnight lows primarily in the mid 20s to low 30s. Still unclear whether below normal temperatures will linger into the weekend and/or the following week.
Today
Cloudy & Balmy. We'll look for morning fog with partly sunny conditions for the first half of the day; despite the fact that skies will become mostly cloudy by the afternoon a copious supply of warm southerly air (with breezes 10-15mph) will push highs to near 70! A rogue shower may pop up in a few spots during the second half of the day. Overcast tonight with a stray shower and exceptionally mild lows near 60.Hold onto your hats! Friday will feature overcast skies and very mild temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Scattered showers (perhaps up to .20") are probable, but the vast majority of steadier, accumulating rain will remain well to the north and west of the DC Metro area. There is a slight chance for a few heavy, gusty thunderstorms, but I think the major story will be the high winds, which may gust 30-60mph at times. Turning sharply colder overnight, with lows in the upper 30s.Cooler but Pleasant. Expect morning clouds and very breezy conditions Saturday morning, giving way to partly sunny afternoon skies with a lingering breeze; highs will be near 50 with overnight lows from the 30-35. Mostly sunny on Sunday, with temperatures nearly steady: expect highs in the upper 40s to near 50 with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for lows.Next Chance of Snow: Monday, December 4th
Probability: 10%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Though highly unlikely, it is too early to completely write off the potential for some white stuff for our area from a coastal storm developing at the start of next week; however, almost all models keep the precipitation from this system well to our east. A better chance (but still quite low) of a few flakes could be over the NW suburbs Monday afternoon or evening as another shot of cold air pushes south and east from the Great Lakes.
LARSON'S LONG-RANGE
Pattern Overview
Pronounced ridging over the southeast US will be responsible for the next two days of cloudy and unseasonably warm weather, but a deep trough and associated area of low pressure will push through by Saturday, and odds are that some version of a trough over the Northeast will linger all of next week, keeping us locked into below normal temperatures. Unfortunately for snow-lovers, next week also looks to be predominately dry. Pictured above: the GFS' representation of a deep trough over the eastern US at the start of next week, which will allow cold air to filter southward from eastern Canada into our area; courtesy Unisys.com.
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 44/29 (normal = 50/34)
Forecast precip: Below normal
Expect mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on Monday with the aforementioned slightest chance of a few flakes, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows from 25-30. Tuesday will feature partly sunny skies with highs in the low 40s and lows in the 20s. Wednesday through Friday look dry from this vantage point, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs mostly from 40-45 and overnight lows primarily in the mid 20s to low 30s. Still unclear whether below normal temperatures will linger into the weekend and/or the following week.
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