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The week ahead: Chock full of winter

Jason Samenow @ 2:00 PM

The coming week will definitely have a wintry feel. Temperatures will largely be below average and we'll have several chances of wintry precipitation. The question is: how significant will they be?


Forecast Confidence: HighBecoming mostly sunny, brisk. The sun will emerge as cold northwest flow gradually eases during the day. Expect high temperatures in the mid 30s with lighter winds when you go home than when you get up and head out. Overnight, expect mostly clear skies, with lows 17-23 (suburbs-city).

The Upcoming Week at a Glance

Coldest Day: Sunday, High 29.
Warmest Day: Friday, High 41.
Dry Days: Today, Wednesday, Sunday
Precipitation Chances: Tuesday PM, Thursday into Friday morning, Saturday AM.
The Week's Wild Cards: Will Tuesday's wave produce measurable snow? How will Thursday's "event" materialize? How cold will it get this weekend?
Climatological Average High/Low: 43-44/27-28


Forecast Confidence: HighChance of flurries in the afternoon and evening. Clouds will gradually increase in the morning, with a 30% chance of light snow or flurries developing in the late afternoon or evening. High temperatures should be in the mid 30s. Overnight, there's a 20% chance of light snow or flurries early with gradual clearing after midnight. Low temperatures should range from 20-25 (suburbs-city)


Forecast Confidence: HighMostly sunny and brisk. In a lot of ways, Wednesday will be like Monday. The day should start off breezy, but with winds subsiding and the sun emerging as cool high pressure builds in from the southwest. Highs should be in the mid to upper 30s. Overnight, clear skies early will give way to increasing clouds late, with lows 20-25 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence:Low-mediumChance of snow. Low pressure over the South may spread overruning precipitation into our area as early as late Thursday morning. This low may then head up the Southeast coast before sliding out to sea at night. Accordingly, there's a 40% chance of snow, with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Overnight, some snow or mixed precipiation may linger (30% chance) with lows near 30.


Forecast Confidence: MediumBecoming partly sunny, cool. Weak high pressure will briefly move in behind Thursday's storm bringing some sunshine and seasonably cool air. Expect decreasing clouds during the day with highs near 40. Overnight, clouds may increase late, with lows in the 28-32 (suburbs-city).

The weekend

Forecast Confidence: MediumBecoming quite cold. A strong cold front may move through the area Saturday, bringing windy conditions and a slight chance of snow showers or flurries. Highs will probably be near 40, but falling after the cold front moves through. Right now, it looks as if Sunday has the potential to be quite cold, with highs just 26-32.

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Tuesday, January 30.
Probability: 20%
Potential Impact:

Commentary: Per the forecast above, we could see a period of light snow Tuesday afternoon and evening as an upper level wave passes through the region. I'd place odds of seeing snow at 30% and odds of snow accumulating at 20% -- and those accumulations would be in the dusting to 1" range if they materialize.

Subsequent Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Thursday, February 1-Friday, February 2
Probability: 35%
Potential Impact:

Commentary: As of now, it looks like we'll be on the northern edge of a winter weather event that will mostly impact areas to our south and southwest. Nonetheless, a period of snow is possible and we'll have to see whether the storm takes a track more up the Mid-Atlantic coast (right now, it heads out to sea off of the Carolinas). A more northerly track would result in more precipitation but may also increase the probability of the snow mixing with sleet or freezing rain. A more southerly (out to sea) track will bring little precipitation to our area. Lots of details yet to be worked out. Stay tuned.

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