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The week ahead: Winter to tease us and leave us
Winter possibly to return again next week

Jason Samenow @ 9:00 AM

Today marks the 30th straight day of above normal high temperatures. After a blast of cold air arrives this afternoon, the streak may end Tuesday and Wednesday (no sure thing) -- as more very mild air returns late in the week before probably getting shutoff sometime next Sunday.


Forecast Confidence: HighRain ending, turning sharply colder. A cold front will clear the region by 10am shutting off the rain and ushering in more winter-like temperatures. Clouds will gradually decrease in the afternoon as the wind picks up and temperatures fall. Morning highs will be in the low 50s before falling to the mid 40s by dark, with northwest winds from 15-25mph. Overnight, it will be partly cloudy, windy and colder, with lows 26-31 (suburbs-city).

The Upcoming Week at a Glance

Coldest Day: Wednesday, High 41.
Warmest Day: Saturday, High 64.
Dry Days: Wednesday-Saturday.
Precipitation Chances: Today (before 10am), Tuesday afternoon (30%), Saturday night and Sunday (60%).
The Week's Wild Cards: Will Tuesday's clipper produce any precipitation? Will the streak of above normal temperatures end Tuesday or Wednesday? How warm will it get Friday and Saturday? When will the Arctic cold front push through the region over the weekend?
Climatological Average High/Low: 42/28-27

Pictured: Cherry blossoms blooming in Oakton, Virginia on Saturday. By photographer Kevin Ambrose.


Forecast Confidence: MediumMostly cloudy, slight chance of snow or rain showers in the afternoon. A clipper will swing through the area during the afternoon bringing clouds and perhaps a period of light snow or rain (30% chance). If it snows, it will not accumulate since it would be falling during the afternoon with temperatures above freezing and a warm ground. It's also possible any precipitation would fall as rain since surface temperatures will probably rise above 40 and intensity would probably be too light to mix down a lot of cold air. High temperatures will probably be in the low 40s (National Weather Service is calling for upper 40s which I think is too warm given clouds, precip and relatively cold air aloft). Overnight, it will become mostly clear, windy and cold, with lows 23-29 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighMostly sunny, breezy and seasonably cold. Behind Tuesday's clipper, the coldest air since early December will arrive. Skies will be mostly sunny which will allow temperatures to rise to near seasonal norms from the upper 30s to the low 40s but it will feel colder than that with gusty northwest winds from 15-25mph. Overnight, it will be clear, less windy but quite cold, with lows 18-25 (suburbs-city)


Forecast Confidence:HighSunny, not as cold. High pressure overhead will promote a sunny day with temperatures recovering nicely after a cold start, with highs near 50. Overnight, skies should be mostly clear with lows 25-32 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighPartly cloudy, turning mild. As high pressure moves offshore, we'll get into this winter's characteristic southerly flow -- responsible for so much of the warmth. Look for partly cloudy skies, with highs in the mid 50s. Overnight, it should remain partly cloudy with lows 32-39 (suburbs-city).

The weekend

Forecast Confidence: MediumAnother unseasonably warm Saturday, then pattern shift Sunday??? As an Arctic front looms to the northwest Saturday, strong southerly flow ahead of it will allow temperatures to reach the low 60s or so. Saturday night and Sunday, said front is likely to bring a period of rain. Sometime on Sunday (after highs in the mid to upper 50s) -- best bet right now is around midday -- the front will clear and it will begin to turn much colder.

Said front may mark the beginning of an abrupt pattern shift towards below normal temperatures. One thing's for sure: the ski areas desperately need it.

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