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Another Week of Cold....Then What?

Josh Larson @ 8:45 AM

USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THIS MORNING -- by foot or by car -- as treacherous conditions will linger in many places. Very cold temperatures this morning will promote an icy crust over everything, with areas of black ice common. Watch out.

We're now 10 degrees below normal for the month of February, and though we're likely to continue to experience much below normal temperatures for the next week -- especially due to the effects of the recent snowcover -- there are some indications that by the second half of next week we may return to more normal temperatures.


Forecast Confidence: HighSunny + blustery. After a frigid start to the day (with temperatures from 10-15) we'll see plenty of sunshine as temperatures struggle to reach the mid 20s. A northwest wind of 10-20mph will certainly be felt, but it won't be quite as blustery as yesterday. Clear and bitterly cold overnight, with lows from 7-14.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighStill cold. Expect almost carbon copy conditions of Thursday on Friday, with abundant sunshine, temperatures near 30, and an occasional northwest breeze making it feel colder.

The Weekend

For Confidence: High-Very HighNot quite as cold. We'll look for only partly sunny skies on Saturday with a slight (<20% chance) of a couple flurries or snow showers late in the day into the overnight hours; highs will approach 35, with lows from the upper teens to low 20s. More clouds than sun on Sunday with highs again in the mid 30s and overnight lows from 15-20.


Pattern Overview
A strong northerly flow of air into our region, behind the departing low pressure system which brought yesterday's wintry mix, will yield continued below normal temperatures (on the order of 10-15 degrees) through next Tuesday.

Thereafter, however, there are strong indications that we may return to near-normal or even somewhat above-normal temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday, as the flow aloft becomes more "zonal" (flat) cutting off the bitter Arctic air, and replacing it with milder Pacific air. This may also lead to a more stormy pattern developing for us for the last week of February, with rain being the favored precipitation type.

CPC's SuperEnsemble forecast model predicts a more zonal flow developing by the middle of next week, allowing temperatures to return to at or above normal levels.

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 43/31 (normal = 47/30)
Forecast precip: Near normal.

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighWe'll look for continued very cold conditions on Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs near 32, with overnight lows from 15-20. Not quite as cold on Tuesday, with high temperatures making a run for the 40 degree mark with overnight lows from 20-25. Wednesday is likely to be milder, still, with mostly cloudy skies and a 50/50 chance of showers; expect highs from 45-50 and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Thursday and Friday may remain unsettled with more clouds than sun and a chance for scattered showers; we'll look for highs near 50 both days with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

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