Sunday, February 11, 2007
Major East Coast Winter Storm Likely
Specific impacts for DC area unclear
Jason Samenow @ 9:20 AM
*Winter Storm Watch in Effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning*
It now appears quite likely that an important storm with significant impacts from the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast will develop. As the event remains 36-48 hours away, determining how much snow will fall and whether it will changeover to a wintry mix is too tough a call to make. Scroll down to the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball for more commentary on the upcoming storm...
Sunny and not as cold. While the day will start off quite chilly (in the teens), ample sunshine will allow high temperatures to reach 37-41. Overnight, it should be mostly clear with lows 17-24 (suburbs-city).
Increasing clouds late. Mostly sunny skies in the morning will give way to high clouds during the afternoon as low pressure begins to develop around the Texas panhandle. Highs should range from 40-45.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Monday PM through Wednesday AM.
Probability: 60%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Forecasting this particular storm remains challenging. One thing I'm fairly confident about is that we will see some snow and that this will be a significant East Coast storm. Outside of that, the details are a bit murky. What follows is a summary of my current thinking.
We know the models have been trending towards a more northerly storm track. That introduces precipitation type issues. However, during the early phase of the storm -- most likely late Monday night into Tuesday -- precipitation type would likely be mostly snow (although a bit of light rain at the very beginning could occur due to relatively warm surface temperatures). For areas along and east of I-95, a changeover to mixed precipitation is a possibility during the second half of Tuesday if the low takes more of a northerly track and we get into southeast winds. Surface temperatures could stay below freezing after the changeover due to low level cold air which would create some icing issues. By Tuesday night, a new secondary low is likely to takeover off the coast and intensify, and precipitation may change back to all snow from west to east before ending Wednesday morning. Said coastal storm could produce blizzard like conditions for areas most likely north of Philadelphia (but can't be ruled out somewhat further south).
Take home points:
It now appears quite likely that an important storm with significant impacts from the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast will develop. As the event remains 36-48 hours away, determining how much snow will fall and whether it will changeover to a wintry mix is too tough a call to make. Scroll down to the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball for more commentary on the upcoming storm...
Today
Sunny and not as cold. While the day will start off quite chilly (in the teens), ample sunshine will allow high temperatures to reach 37-41. Overnight, it should be mostly clear with lows 17-24 (suburbs-city).Tomorrow
Increasing clouds late. Mostly sunny skies in the morning will give way to high clouds during the afternoon as low pressure begins to develop around the Texas panhandle. Highs should range from 40-45.Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Monday PM through Wednesday AM.
Probability: 60%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: Forecasting this particular storm remains challenging. One thing I'm fairly confident about is that we will see some snow and that this will be a significant East Coast storm. Outside of that, the details are a bit murky. What follows is a summary of my current thinking.
We know the models have been trending towards a more northerly storm track. That introduces precipitation type issues. However, during the early phase of the storm -- most likely late Monday night into Tuesday -- precipitation type would likely be mostly snow (although a bit of light rain at the very beginning could occur due to relatively warm surface temperatures). For areas along and east of I-95, a changeover to mixed precipitation is a possibility during the second half of Tuesday if the low takes more of a northerly track and we get into southeast winds. Surface temperatures could stay below freezing after the changeover due to low level cold air which would create some icing issues. By Tuesday night, a new secondary low is likely to takeover off the coast and intensify, and precipitation may change back to all snow from west to east before ending Wednesday morning. Said coastal storm could produce blizzard like conditions for areas most likely north of Philadelphia (but can't be ruled out somewhat further south). Take home points:
- Some snow is likely everywhere during the early and late phases of the storm
- There may be mixing during the middle phase of the storm, particularly in the immediate DC area and points south and east -- with icing issues a possibility
- The greatest snow amounts are likely north and west of DC, but an all-snow event with substantial totals still cannot be ruled out even for the immediate DC area
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