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The Calm Before the Storm
Significant uncertainties remain on details

Jason Samenow @ 7:20 PM

Anticipation is building as the onset of a winter storm draws nearer. It's becoming more clear that it will snow, but it's not as clear that the precipitation will remain snow for the duration of the storm. In the near term, not much to talk about -- just mostly cloud-free skies and chilly temperatures. Scroll down to the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball for more commentary on the upcoming storm...


Forecast Confidence: HighClear and cold. Winds will gradually diminish this evening and temperatures will fall steadily. Expect clear skies and cold temperatures, with lows 10-15 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: HighJust like today: mostly sunny and brisk. Cold high pressure will be centered over the region. It will remain chilly but temperatures should be a few degrees higher than Saturday -- ranging from 38-42.

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Monday PM through Wednesday AM.
Probability: 55%
Potential Impact:

Commentary: The computer models, generally speaking, have been trending towards a slightly warmer solution for this storm. So I'm no longer as confident that this will be an all-snow event -- although it's still a possibility.

As of now, some overrunning light snow is possible late Monday. The bulk of the precipitation (most likely in the form of snow) would fall Tuesday and Tuesday night tapering off on Wednesday. A storm track closer to the coast or inland might result in a changeover to mixed precipitation or rain along and east of I-95 on Tuesday. A storm track too far to our south and offshore would result in substantial snow for central and southern Virginia, but minor accumulations in DC and points north. This latter scenario now appears less likely than just 24 hours ago. Snow lover's need to hope for a track somewhere in between these two scenarios.

At this point, I would say some accumulating snow is likely, but it's still too early to say whether this will be a memorable snow event for DC or just another underperforming event that disappoints the legions of Washington, DC snow lovers.

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