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Winter Storm Coming into Focus
Snow and ice likely, the distribution uncertain

Jason Samenow @ 5:28 PM

*Winter Storm Watch in Effect from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon*

A major winter storm is likely beginning late Monday night lasting until Wednesday morning. Precipitation is likely to begin as snow before changing to sleet and freezing rain in most areas. Significant snow and ice accumulations are possible but due to uncertainties about the timing of a changeover, accumulation forecasts are difficult. Scroll down to the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball for more commentary on the upcoming storm...


Forecast Confidence: HighClear and cold. We'll have another brisk night, but not as cold as the past several. Low temperatures will drop from the mid teens in the suburbs to the low to mid 20s downtown.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighIncreasing clouds late. Mostly sunny skies in the morning will give way to high clouds during the afternoon as low pressure begins to develop around the Texas panhandle. Highs should be in the low 40s.

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Monday PM through Wednesday AM.
Probability: 65%
Potential Impact:

Commentary: Not much has changed since my earlier update except that significant icing has emerged as a more significant threat. This decreases the probability of heavy snowfall amounts of 6" or more, but does not reduce the storm's potential seriousness and overall impact. Also, it should be noted that a slight shift in the current projected storm track could result in more snow and less ice or vice versa. It does appear that temperatures will be at or below freezing for much of the event.

For tomorrow's update, to be posted late tonight and tweaked tomorrow morning, we will take a first crack at potential accumulations.

Take home points:
  • Some snow is likely everywhere during the early phase of the storm
  • There may be mixing during the middle phase of the storm, particularly in the immediate DC area and points south and east -- with significant icing issues a possibility
  • The greatest snow amounts are likely north and west of DC, where the precipitation will remain in the form of snow longer

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