Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Mid Winter Like Weather for Mid Week
Some snow likely Wednesday
Matt Ross @ 3:05 PM
**Snow Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Wednesday**
The latest guidance suggests that 1-2" is the most likely scenario for tomorrow's snow event. Light snow is expected to move into the area from the northwest around dawn and fall throughout the day, becoming occasionally moderate during midday through the afternoon. Snow should taper off from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening. Areas where heavier bursts and bands of precipitation occur may see up to 4", but those areas would likely be well west or to the southeast of the immediate metro area.
Besides the snow, the big story is the cold arctic air locked in place for the next couple of days. Temperatures will run 15-20 degrees below normal as we see our coldest air mass since mid February.
Breezy, Cold. Today will be sunny, breezy and very cold. Afternoon high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 30s -- nearly 20 degrees below average.
Frigid, Snow. Tonight we will see increasing clouds with overnight temperatures dipping all the way to the mid to upper teens. On Wednesday, light to moderate snow is likely to develop in the morning with highs struggling to reach 30. Refer to the Snow Lovers Crystal Ball below for more details on the snow and see Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.
Snow Lover's Crystal Ball 
Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Wednesday
Probability: 70%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A clipper will move in from the northwest on Tuesday night and bring our region snow on Wednesday. Right now it looks like snow will develop around dawn and continue into the early evening. The amount of accumulation is dependent on several factors. These include the impact of the sun angle, intensity of the snow, timing, and surface temperatures. As indicated by the graph below, this currently looks like mostly a nuisance event. The latest guidance indicates 1-2" as the most likely accumulation amount.
The El Nino event that looked more formidable in the Fall and early Winter, rapidly weakened during February. Meanwhile, there is some indication that a La Nina event may quickly form as we head through Spring and Summer. La Nina is marked by colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. Sometimes La Nina events only last a year or less, while some of the more persistent events have lasted several years, such as 1954-57, 1973-76 and most recently, 1998-2001.
Pictured Above: A recent satellite image shows the developing cold ocean temperatures along the equatorial pacific indicative of a La Nina, courtesy of the National Weather Service.
While there are many variables in addition to El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), La Nina events that develop early in the year tend to give us warm and dry Aprils followed by cool and wet Mays. The summer in a La Nina is typically, but not always, hot and dry for us. In addition, decreased westerly winds in the Atlantic support an increased chance for landfall of hurricanes along the East and Gulf Coasts. This in contrast to the developing El Nino conditions last summer which led to most hurricanes recurving in the Atlantic Ocean away from the US. While weaker La Ninas led to our 2 snowiest winters on record, 1898-99 and 1995-96, moderate to strong events tend be cold early and warm later(opposite of this past winter)with average to below average snow.
The latest guidance suggests that 1-2" is the most likely scenario for tomorrow's snow event. Light snow is expected to move into the area from the northwest around dawn and fall throughout the day, becoming occasionally moderate during midday through the afternoon. Snow should taper off from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening. Areas where heavier bursts and bands of precipitation occur may see up to 4", but those areas would likely be well west or to the southeast of the immediate metro area.
Besides the snow, the big story is the cold arctic air locked in place for the next couple of days. Temperatures will run 15-20 degrees below normal as we see our coldest air mass since mid February.
Today
Breezy, Cold. Today will be sunny, breezy and very cold. Afternoon high temperatures will only reach the low to mid 30s -- nearly 20 degrees below average.Tonight and Tomorrow
Frigid, Snow. Tonight we will see increasing clouds with overnight temperatures dipping all the way to the mid to upper teens. On Wednesday, light to moderate snow is likely to develop in the morning with highs struggling to reach 30. Refer to the Snow Lovers Crystal Ball below for more details on the snow and see Jason's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.Next Chance of Accumulating Snow:
Wednesday
Probability: 70%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: A clipper will move in from the northwest on Tuesday night and bring our region snow on Wednesday. Right now it looks like snow will develop around dawn and continue into the early evening. The amount of accumulation is dependent on several factors. These include the impact of the sun angle, intensity of the snow, timing, and surface temperatures. As indicated by the graph below, this currently looks like mostly a nuisance event. The latest guidance indicates 1-2" as the most likely accumulation amount.
La Nina
The El Nino event that looked more formidable in the Fall and early Winter, rapidly weakened during February. Meanwhile, there is some indication that a La Nina event may quickly form as we head through Spring and Summer. La Nina is marked by colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. Sometimes La Nina events only last a year or less, while some of the more persistent events have lasted several years, such as 1954-57, 1973-76 and most recently, 1998-2001.
Pictured Above: A recent satellite image shows the developing cold ocean temperatures along the equatorial pacific indicative of a La Nina, courtesy of the National Weather Service.
While there are many variables in addition to El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), La Nina events that develop early in the year tend to give us warm and dry Aprils followed by cool and wet Mays. The summer in a La Nina is typically, but not always, hot and dry for us. In addition, decreased westerly winds in the Atlantic support an increased chance for landfall of hurricanes along the East and Gulf Coasts. This in contrast to the developing El Nino conditions last summer which led to most hurricanes recurving in the Atlantic Ocean away from the US. While weaker La Ninas led to our 2 snowiest winters on record, 1898-99 and 1995-96, moderate to strong events tend be cold early and warm later(opposite of this past winter)with average to below average snow.
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