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Pleasant Weather Ahead, But Will it Last the Weekend?

Dan Stillman @ 9:00 AM

Yesterday's low 80s have come and gone, but temperatures will remain for the most part mild and pleasant through the weekend and into next week. Precipitation chances will be minimal, though not completely ruled out, until late Saturday when rain threatens to disrupt the latter half of the weekend.


Forecast Confidence: HighNot as warm, but not bad. We won't see the 80s we saw yesterday, but high temperatures will still be mild with highs approaching 70. Skies will be partly sunny, and can't rule out the slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but most precipitation should stay south and west of the metro area. Tonight, partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly south and west of the metro area. Lows in the mid-to-upper 40s in town, low 40s in the burbs.


Forecast Confidence: HighCooler, but becoming sunny. We'll keep the slight chance of a shower in the morning, mainly south of the metro area. Otherwise, becoming sunny and dry (dewpoints in the 20s) with highs near 60. Overnight, clear and cool with lows in the mid-to-upper 30s in town, low-to-mid 30s in the burbs.


Forecast Confidence: HighSunny, slightly warmer. With high pressure dominating, we'll see blue skies and bright sunshine. After a crisp morning start (morning lows in the 30s), temperatures will climb nicely to highs in the mid 60s. Overnight, mainly clear, though a few clouds may work their way into the picture by morning. Lows in the low 40s in town, mid 30s in the burbs.

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: Low-MediumMixed bag. Saturday looks good -- at least partly sunny with highs 65-70. Saturday night through Sunday night is more questionable, as first a warm front and then a cold front come through. We may also have to deal with low pressure developing off the coast on Sunday, but the details aren't clear yet. So, let's call for increasing clouds and a chance of showers Saturday night, lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Sunday, mostly cloudy with rain possible and highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

In Hurricane Forecasts We Trust?

It's that time of year again. As Steve mentioned yesterday, preliminary forecasts are starting to come out for the 2007 hurricane season, still more than two months away. First off the blocks are, the United Kingdom's Tropical Storm Risk, and William Gray's group at Colorado State University (now led by Philip Klotzbach).

AccuWeather isn't getting into specific numbers of storms yet, but does say that the Gulf Coast "is at much higher risk of destructive tropical weather this year." Tropical Storm Risk is predicting (note: PDF file) Atlantic Ocean hurricane activity to be 75 percent above normal, with 16.7 named tropical storms, 9.4 hurricanes and 4.3 major hurricanes (Category 3-5). Likewise, Colorado State's latest forecast (from December) calls for an above-average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

With updated forecasts due out between now and the beginning of hurricane season, as well as an expected forecast from the National Hurricane Center, now seems like a good time to point out that last year's widespread predictions for an above-normal season did not pan out. The 10 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes were all slightly below the long-term average. Depending on who you talk to, it was either the late-summer development of El Nino or drier-than-normal air over the Atlantic, or a combination of the two, that suppressed the number of storms.

For those interested in further investigating the accuracy of last year's hurricane season forecasts, Tropical Storm Risk has compiled a nice chart on page 3 of this PDF. AccuWeather is not included on the chart, and comparison with other outlets is difficult because its 2006 forecast only predicts the number of land-falling storms.

Pictured: Storm tracks from a quieter-than-predicted 2006 hurricane season. Will forecasters do better this year? Courtesy Weather Underground.

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