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A Rainy Beginning to March

Josh Larson @ 8:30 AM

**Flood Watch in effect later today through tomorrow morning.**

While overcast and wet will describe conditions over the next 24 hours, thereafter it appears that a prolonged spell of mostly sunny and dry weather will develop this weekend into much of next week. In addition, temperatures over the coming week to 10 days will average slightly below normal (with the exception of Friday).


Forecast Confidence: HighRain developing. Morning sunshine will quickly give way to copious cloud cover today with afternoon highs near 50 degrees and showers developing during the mid to late afternoon hours. Precipitation will increase in coverage and intensity overnight, with occasional periods of moderate to heavy rain and a few scattered thunderstorms, with mild lows steady in the mid to upper 40s. (Rain totals of at least an inch are likely area-wide.)


Forecast Confidence: MediumSunshine emerging. Though a few scattered showers may linger into the morning hours of Friday, drying conditions and increasing sunshine will develop by late morning. Expect mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions during the afternoon hours, with mild highs near 60. Mostly clear Friday night with lows from 30-35.

The Weekend

For Confidence: High-Very HighMostly sunny + seasonable. Look for partly to mostly sunny conditions on Saturday with afternoon highs in the low 50s and overnight lows, under mostly clear skies, near 30. Not as mild on Sunday, despite abundant sunshine, with afternoon highs in the mid 40s and overnight lows from the upper 20s to mid 30s.


Pattern Overview
Uneventful would probably be the most pertinent word to describe weather over our are next week. A trough of low pressure over the Northeast hold seasonably cool temperatures over our region, with highs most days about 5 degrees below our "average" high of 53. This trough will also act to suppress the storm-track somewhat further south than it has been recently, so we will likely experience largely dry conditions through the work week, with most days featuring at least partly sunny skies.

Above: a trough over the Northeast US will be conducive to seasonably cool conditions for our area most of next week; from the CPC SuperEnsemble forecast model for next Monday.

Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 48/34 (normal = 53/35)
Forecast precip: Below-normal.

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighLook for plenty of sunshine on Monday, but with northwesterly flow over our area high temperatures will only make it to about 45; clear overnight with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature partly to mostly sunny skies with highs near 50 and overnight lows near 35. Thursday and Friday will feature continued partly to mostly sunny skies with near steady temperatures near 50 for highs and 30-35 for lows.

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