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The Antithesis of Sunny & Dry?
Powerful storm to affect area second half of weekend

Josh Larson @ 7:30 AM

If you're looking for some semblance of sunny and dry weather over the next week to ten days here in DC, I'd say you're out of luck. A very active jet stream will allow for enhanced storminess -- in the form of several rain events -- for our area over the coming week, with the majority of days featuring little or no sunshine. Unfortunately, too, temperatures will continue to average 5-10 degrees below normal for the upcoming stretch.


Forecast Confidence: HighAM showers; milder. If you wake up early enough, you'll catch some lingering early morning showers, but they should exit the area by 9am. The rest of the day will be a battle between clouds and sun, with the former winning out most off the time; a stray shower is also possible during the afternoon, though most places will remain dry. Highs will be in the low 60s, with overnight lows, under mostly clear skies, in the upper 30s to low 40s.


Forecast Confidence: MediumNicest day for quite a while... We'll look for a blend of clouds and sun on Friday, with dry weather and slightly cooler highs from 55-60. We'll have chilly conditions for Friday night, with lows generally from 35-40.

The Weekend

For Confidence: High-Very HighA RAW WASHOUT. Just in time for the weekend, a powerful storm system will set up along the East Coast which will keep us overcast, quite cool, and at times considerably rainy.

Saturday will feature overcast skies highs in the low 50s. The timing of precipitation is uncertain, but there's a chance we escape much of the day with just a few scattered showers. Then, an increasing chance of showers toward evening, and periods of rain Saturday night with chilly overnight lows in the low 40s. Sunday looks even worse, with thick overcast, periods of moderate to -- at times -- pouring rain, and very gusty (20-40mph) NE to NW winds. Expect raw highs only in the mid 40s, with 2-4" of rain (and localized flooding) possible. Overcast and cold Sunday night with scattered showers, perhaps mixed with a few wet snowflakes north and west of town, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Pattern Overview

A very amplified and active jet stream over the coming week will lead to enhanced storminess for our neck of the woods. Last night's and this morning's showers are just a small introduction to what is likely to be a much more serious rain and wind event this weekend. A powerful, coastal low pressure system will "bomb out" off the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, bringing much below normal temperatures, moderate to heavy rain, and gusty winds. If you're thinking of having any outdoor activities this weekend Saturday is the "better" of the two days; Sunday is a lost cause.

Image at right: A GFS forecast surface/precipitation map for Sunday afternoon, with a deep 984mb low off the East Coast; click on the image to see a loop of the active upper-level pattern partly responsible for this storm system.


Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 59/46 (normal = 67/47)
Forecast precip: Above-normal

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighWe'll likely hang on to some clouds and scattered showers on Monday, though skies should hopefully brighten by the latter part of the day; expect highs in the low 50s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Tuesday looks fairly nice, for a change, with at least partly sunny skies, and dry weather expected, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Increasing clouds look probable on Wednesday ahead of the next area of low pressure poised to bring showers or steadier rain back to the region on Thursday into Friday; temperatures during this time, however, will likely moderate to near 60 for daytime highs and the mid 40s to lower 50s for overnight lows.

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