Thursday, May 17, 2007
Turning Cooler Behind Cold Front
Weekend Weather Less Certain
Josh Larson @ 1:00 AM
We'll look for cooler and less humid conditions over the next two days, behind the cold front that brought yesterday's gusty thunderstorms to our area. However, forecast confidence for the Friday-Saturday period is lower than usual due to model disagreement regarding an area of low pressure spinning close to our region.
In terms of the weekend, the way I see it now is: (1) a 60% chance of a mostly sunny, predominately dry weekend with highs in the 70s; (2) a 40% chance of a mostly cloudy, potentially showery weekend with highs in the 60s.
AM Sun; PM Clouds? Expect mostly sunny skies to start the first half of the day, with highs climbing to near 70 by early afternoon. Clouds may be on the increase during the second half of the day, but we'll still stay partly sunny by sunset. Mostly cloudy overnight with a stray shower or sprinkle possible and lows in the low to mid 50s.
Cooler still. Expect a varying blend of clouds and sun on Friday with a chance of a stray shower or sprinkle in spots and cooler-still highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows near 50.
Up for grabs. Here's to hoping that the forecast models (and Camden!) have a better handle on the weekend weather as we get closer to it. For now I'll call for partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with a chance of scattered showers and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday looks to feature partly to mostly sunny skies with the slightest chance of a sprinkle; highs, depending on cloud cover, should creep into the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows both nights will likely be in the mid 50s.
A pesky piece of atmospheric "energy" approaching the area from the west -- coupled with a surface area of low pressure off the East Coast will bring the chance for unsettled weather to the area from late Thursday into early Sunday. Models disagree as to exactly where, and how fast, this system pushes through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As mentioned, this feature will "make" or "break" our weather this weekend. Ironically, after Sunday, forecast confidence increases and most evidence points to predominately sunny and dry weather with seasonable temperatures for much of next week.
Pictured above: the GFS forecast model's representation of the jet stream aloft (at 300mb) for Saturday morning; note the nearly closed-off area of low pressure over the northeastern US.
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 76/57 (normal = 77/58)
Forecast precip: Below-normal
We'll look for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions Monday and Tuesday, with little if any chances of rain and highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. Similar weather is expected on Wednesday, with perhaps slightly more in the way of clouds and steady temperatures. From this far vantage point, Thursday and Friday may feature an increase in clouds with a chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms either afternoon/evening, with highs from 75-80 and overnight lows in the 50s.
In terms of the weekend, the way I see it now is: (1) a 60% chance of a mostly sunny, predominately dry weekend with highs in the 70s; (2) a 40% chance of a mostly cloudy, potentially showery weekend with highs in the 60s.
Today
AM Sun; PM Clouds? Expect mostly sunny skies to start the first half of the day, with highs climbing to near 70 by early afternoon. Clouds may be on the increase during the second half of the day, but we'll still stay partly sunny by sunset. Mostly cloudy overnight with a stray shower or sprinkle possible and lows in the low to mid 50s.Tomorrow
Cooler still. Expect a varying blend of clouds and sun on Friday with a chance of a stray shower or sprinkle in spots and cooler-still highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows near 50.Up for grabs. Here's to hoping that the forecast models (and Camden!) have a better handle on the weekend weather as we get closer to it. For now I'll call for partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with a chance of scattered showers and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Sunday looks to feature partly to mostly sunny skies with the slightest chance of a sprinkle; highs, depending on cloud cover, should creep into the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows both nights will likely be in the mid 50s.Pattern Overview
A pesky piece of atmospheric "energy" approaching the area from the west -- coupled with a surface area of low pressure off the East Coast will bring the chance for unsettled weather to the area from late Thursday into early Sunday. Models disagree as to exactly where, and how fast, this system pushes through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As mentioned, this feature will "make" or "break" our weather this weekend. Ironically, after Sunday, forecast confidence increases and most evidence points to predominately sunny and dry weather with seasonable temperatures for much of next week.Pictured above: the GFS forecast model's representation of the jet stream aloft (at 300mb) for Saturday morning; note the nearly closed-off area of low pressure over the northeastern US.
LARSON'S LONG-RANGE
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 76/57 (normal = 77/58)
Forecast precip: Below-normal
We'll look for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions Monday and Tuesday, with little if any chances of rain and highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. Similar weather is expected on Wednesday, with perhaps slightly more in the way of clouds and steady temperatures. From this far vantage point, Thursday and Friday may feature an increase in clouds with a chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms either afternoon/evening, with highs from 75-80 and overnight lows in the 50s.
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