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Back to Reality: Becoming Summery and Sultry
Oppressive heat and humidity expected Friday

Josh Larson @ 1:00 AM

** Heat Advisory in Effect From 2 PM to 8 PM Friday **

You didn't really think yesterday's delightful weather would last, did you? I hope not, since we'll tack on another 10-15 degrees today to yesterday's highs (along with a palpable increase in humidity). And that's not it; Friday will be quintessentially oppressive, with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices near 100! Luckily, temperatures will drop back off for the weekend.


Forecast Confidence: MediumMuch warmer. In marked contrast to yesterday's highs in the low to mid 70s, a southwesterly return flow on the back side of a ridge of high pressure will allow for a significant increase in heat and humidity levels today. Expect afternoon highs, under a blend of clouds and sun, in the upper 80s, with tonight's lows near 70.


Forecast Confidence: MediumUNBEARABLE. Do anything you can to avoid the fierce heat and humidity on Friday. Under a blend of clouds and sun, near-record highs will range from the low 90s in the "coolest" areas to the upper 90s in a few spots -- likely to our south; heat indices will near 100 degrees. A few heavy, gusty thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly cloudy and sultry with a stray thundershower overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

The Weekend

Confidence: High-Very HighMore comfortable. Look for much more pleasant weather this weekend after Friday's torturous heat and humidity, with both Saturday and Sunday expected to feature low humidity levels and mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs from 80-85. Both nights should serve up mostly clear conditions with low temperatures ranging from 60-65.

Pattern Overview

An unusually strong ridge of high pressure building into the eastern third of the country will bring warming conditions today and near-record high temperatures on Friday (as it moves offshore). However, a cold front approaching from the northwest will push through late Friday into early Saturday, setting the stage for a much more pleasant weekend. Long-term guidance suggests that some version of a ridge of high pressure will remain over our region for much of next week, with temperatures likely at near- to above-normal levels and precipitation at near- to below-normal levels.

Image above: the GFS forecast model (at 850mb) shows a steamy southwesterly flow on the backside of the area of high pressure that moves offshore on Friday; luckily, you can also see the approaching cold front over the Great Lakes which will make for much nicer weekend weather.


Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 87/67 (normal = 84/65)
Forecast precip: Near to below normal

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighWe'll look for mostly sunny conditions on Monday with pleasant high temperatures in the low 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Expect a blend of clouds and sun on Tuesday and Wednesday with somewhat increasing heat and humidity levels; high temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. From this far vantage point, Thursday and Friday look to feature a continued blend of clouds and sun with scattered late-day showers and thunderstorms and highs from 85-90 with overnight lows from 65-70.

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