top border

Please note, not all links may be active. This site is a snapshot of an earlier time.

Fourth Gets Off to Fine Start, But Dangerous Finish?
Severe storms late this afternoon and evening

Dan Stillman @ 6:00 PM

** Tornado Watch in Effect Until 10 PM **

Nowcast 6pm: Severe thunderstorms currently affecting north and west suburbs-- and headed east. Possible rotating thunderstorm affecting Fairfax County, tornado warning in effect. Fairfax County, particularly areas right along I-66 is in the line of this storm and then downtown Washington, DC by around 6:30 pm. This is a dangerous storm and you should take cover if you're in its path.

There's also a severe thunderstorm affecting Montgomery County.

Storms may be out of the picture by 8pm for fireworks. Will keep you posted. - Jason Samenow, Chief Meteorologist

Fireworks Forecast

Where: The Mall
When: 9:10 pm
Temp: 75-79
Chance of Rain: 30%
Sky: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
The last few days brought below-normal temperatures (highs in the low 80s) and wonderfully low humidity. Today will be a little warmer and a touch humid, but fairly comfortable compared to many Fourth of Julys past. The potential nuisance is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. I'd venture to say those odds are too low to go changing any plans yet, but high enough to keep an eye to the sky and on radar just in case.


Forecast Confidence: HighWarmer and a touch humid ... late-day showers and storms? Temperatures head toward an afternoon high in the mid 80s under partly to at times mostly cloudy skies. A touch of humidity will be tempered by a breeze from the south at 10-15 mph. The late afternoon into the overnight hours brings a 30% chance of a few showers or thunderstorms. As Matt mentioned yesterday, the focus of the activity looks to be north and west of the metro area, but a strong or severe storm is not out of the question for DC and vicinity.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighIncreasing humidity, some potential for showers and storms. Evening temperatures will generally be dropping from the low 80s into the upper 70s, though it will likely be cooler for any areas that catch a thunderstorm or strong shower. It may feel a bit muggy as temperatures fall and dewpoints rise. A 30% chance of a few showers or thunderstorms will persist through at least midnight. Lows should bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighWarm, humid, better chance of precip. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day as a cool front slowly approaches from the northwest. It'll be humid with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility, especially in the afternoon and evening. As of now, I'd put the chances at 50%. There's some potential that a few storms could be severe, especially if we get a few peeks of sunshine to warm the atmosphere and make it less stable. Overnight, a continued 50% chance of showers or storms, but then diminishing chances and some clearing possible toward morning with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMore sun, decreasing humidity, slight chance PM storm. The cool front will likely have pushed to our south and east by morning or early afternoon, but could linger close enough to give us a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, look for a partly to mostly sunny day with gradually decreasing humidity and highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight, mostly clear with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 in town, mid 60s in the burbs.

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighSunny, heating up, not too humid. The heat will be characteristic of July, but uncharacteristically absent will be the humidity, which should remain largely in check over the weekend. Saturday should be sunny with comfortable humidity levels and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Saturday night, mostly clear with lows near 70 in town, mid 60s in the burbs. Sunday, hot with highs in the low-to-mid 90s. Humidity may gradually rise during the day, but still shouldn't be too bad.

Havoc at the Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center sure is active considering how inactive the season is at the moment. Currently, there are no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. Yet, inside the hurricane center a political storm is growing. In the eye of the storm is Bill Proenza, the center's director. As's Sunday columnist Andrew Freedman talked about last month, Proenza has been publicly complaining that the hurricane center is underfunded by its parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Specifically, Proenza has expressed concerns that delays in the development and launch of a satellite to replace the aging QuikSCAT could compromise hurricane forecast accuracy if QuikSCAT, already past its expected lifetime, were to fail.

At first, Proenza seemed to have support from some of his colleagues at the center. But now, after a letter of reprimand and this week's inspection by higher-ups at NOAA, it sounds like some members of his staff are turning on him, to the point where shouting matches broke out yesterday, according to the Miami Herald. Read the latest update from the Herald here.

Tell Us About Yourself ... You Know You Want To

We'd like to know a little bit more about you -- our loyal visitors, both old and new. Please take a few minutes (10 to 15 to be exact) to answer this survey. The data you provide will help us sell advertisements that pay for the costs of running this site. Don't worry, you won't be asked to submit your name or contact info.

Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | email post Email this post