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Comfortable Cloudiness, then Rain on the Way?
Mean Dean Approaches Jamaica

Jason Samenow @ 1:00 AM

(Andrew Freedman's Undercast will return next week)

We won't be able to label the second half of the weekend "gorgeous" due to the considerable cloud cover, but it will still be comfortable and mainly dry. The rain, which we desperately need, should be considerate enough to hold off until Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Dean continues tracking through the Caribbean, with its eyes on the Yucatan and southern Gulf of Mexico


Forecast Confidence: HighConsiderable cloudiness but pleasant. We'll enjoy one more day of comfortably warm and dry air before the humidity returns behind a warm front developing over the region. Said front will give us mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures near 80. Overnight, the warm front will pass through the area providing us with a 40% chance of showers. The best chance of rain will be north of DC. Low temperatures will range from 63-68 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: MediumMostly cloudy, humid. Showers possible. Heading back to work, the weather becomes a bit unsettled. Sunday night's warm front, located just to our north, won't budge much. Given the front's proximity, we should have considerable cloudiness with a pretty good chance (60%) of showers. Will these showers provide drought busting rainfall totals? Probably not, because the best rains look to be near the PA border in the vicinity of the front. But we'll take any rain we can get. The clouds and possible rain will hold high temperatures between 75-80.

Pictured: The NAM Forecast model shows about 0.5"-0.75" of rain falling over the area by Monday evening (mostly during the day Monday). The axis of the heaviest rain is to our north, but could shift north or south, depending on the exact location of the front Monday, which is uncertain. Whether we get a good dousing of rain or - as has been the case most of the summer - just a few drops, Monday presents the best chance of rain we've had in a while.

Tracking Dean

At press time, Hurricane Dean was a powerful Category 4 hurricane with peak winds of 145 miles per hour. On its current track, the center should pass just south of Jamaica, but it's going to be a very close call for that island. Once it's west of Jamaica, all computer models take the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula, where it will weaken. After that, Dean should emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico and restrengthen a bit (but probably not higher than to Category 2 or 3 intensity -- the Yucatan should do a number on Dean), before making landfall on the Mexican Gulf Coast. Currently, no model predicts the storm will make landfall in the U.S., although southeast Texas could certainly experience some of Dean's effects and is not out of the woods as the models could still shift north in the coming days.

Pictured: Hurricane Dean at 1am last night. The island of Jamaica is located on the upper left side of the image. Infrared satellite image courtesy (Click on link for current image.)

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