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Less Extreme, But Still Unusually Warm Today
Risk of strong storms today

Josh Larson @ 12:05 PM

We'll see slightly less extreme heat today (mid to upper 90s), with temperatures dropping a few degrees further still on Friday and more again on Saturday, likely ending our streak of 90-degree days which including today stands at 10 in a row. Both today and tomorrow, thunderstorms are possible, a few of which may be severe. Despite these rain chances and the subsequent cool down, all indications suggest that above normal temperatures and severe drought conditions will return next week.


Forecast Confidence: MediumStill roastin'. Chance of storms. Partly sunny skies and temperatures "only" in the mid to upper 90s today will couple with continued very high humidity levels to produce slightly less extreme heat indices between 100-105. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and into the evening, with about a 50% chance that it will rain where you happen to be (more like 70% north of town). Some storms have the potential to reach severe levels, particularly just to our north. Very heavy rain and damaging winds are possible with storms that develop. Overnight, a lingering chance of showers and storms, and oppressively warm and humid with lows from 75-80.


Forecast Confidence: MediumSlightly less hot, chace of showers and storms. We'll look for high temperatures to drop a few degrees further on Friday, with partly sunny skies, temperatures in the low 90s and a 30% chance of showers and storms. Mostly clear and considerably more comfortable Friday night, with lows dropping into the mid 60s across the coolest suburbs to the low 70s downtown.

The Weekend

Confidence: High-Very HighWarm but less humid. Drumroll, please ... for the first time since late July, high temperatures on Saturday are expected to stay below 90! Under mostly sunny skies and more comfortable humidity levels we'll look for highs in the upper 80s. Clear and comfortable Saturday night with lows from the low 60s in the coolest areas to the upper 60s downtown.

We'll not be quite as lucky on Sunday, however, as high temperatures likely reach or exceed the 90 degree mark once again, under continued mostly sunny skies. Mostly clear and not as cool Sunday night, with lows from the upper 60s to the low 70s. photographer Kevin Ambrose took this shot of a storm over King George County, VA as his plane descended yesterday evening. Thunderstorms were isolated yesterday but may be more widespread and potentially severe today.

Pattern Overview

Good news first: the strong ridge of high pressure that has recently brought temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s will begin to shift westward over the next several days, which will allow for somewhat less extreme temperatures over the coming week than this past week.

The bad news: the position of this sprawling area of high pressure centered over the nation's mid-section will still allow for above normal temperatures for our region, and, worse, will not be conducive to much-needed rain for our area. As a result, severe drought conditions will persist or even slightly worsen.

Pictured above: the CPC's temperature outlook for next week suggests the vast majority of the country is likely to see above normal temperatures; the DC area is on the fringe of this abnormal warmth.


Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 92/74 (normal = 87/69)
Forecast precip: Below-normal

Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighWith an expansive area of high pressure covering much of the nation, we'll look for mostly sunny and dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday, with moderate humidity levels and high temperatures from 90-95, with overnight lows primarily in the low to mid 70s. Look for more of the same on Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. From this far vantage point, temperatures look to remain above average on Thursday and Friday, though precipitation chances may increase just a bit -- from essentially non-existent to slight. Expect continued high temperatures from 90-95 and overnight lows in the 70s.

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