Monday, August 20, 2007
The Week Ahead: Humid and Trending Hotter
Rain early in the week, but mostly north
Jason Samenow @ 9:00 AM
Heavy, soaking rain will be close, oh so close to the metro area today and tomorrow. It's exactly the kind of rain we would need to put a dent in this drought (last night's storms provided a nice start). But much of the rain will douse the Keystone state (PA) while we mostly get leftovers. We'll have to take what we can get because, by midweek, it will dry out and heat up. A mini heat wave may affect the area Thursday-Sunday.
Mostly cloudy and humid, chance of showers. A warm front will slowly drift northward from central Virginia towards the metro area with disturbances running along it. These disturbances will produce rain, with the best coverage (and heaviest amounts) north of the front (towards southern Pennsylvania). Nonetheless, we can expect a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening. Clouds and northerly winds (as we'll be north of the front much of the day) will hold high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight, it will be mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Lows should be in the mid to upper 60s.
Cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. The stalled frontal boundary, draped across the region, won't move much on Tuesday. A disturbance moving along this front will contain some of the remnant energy and moisture from once Tropical Storm Erin -- so we could see some enhanced rainfall on Tuesday if the rain shield extends far enough southward. Let's call it mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and storms, capable of putting down some heavy rain. It's not a sure thing, but it looks to be our best chance of appreciable rain this week. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight, we'll have a chance of showers and storms early, then partly cloudy skies, with lows 65-70 (suburbs-city).
Very warm and humid. The previously stalled front over Pennsylvania is going to lift northward, allowing high pressure to start to build in from the south. This will heat things up a bit. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated storm or two could form in the late afternoon, but chances are pretty slim. Overnight, it will be mostly clear, with lows 65-70 (suburbs-city).
Pictured: Enjoying the weather Saturday at Lake Accotink near Springfield, VA. By late this week, being on (or, better, in) the water will be an inviting way to cool off. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
Partly sunny, hot and humid. The already humid airmass is likely to turn hot, making for uncomfortable conditions. Look for high temperatures in the low 90s with peak heat indices nearing the century mark. Overnight, it will likely be muggy, with lows 70-75 (suburbs-city).
Oppressive heat and humidity. With the jet stream taking a big jog to the north and a hot ridge of high pressure over the southeast and mid-Atlantic, the weather pattern is going to be a hot one. While the the National Weather Service (at press time) is calling for a high of 87 Friday and 91 Saturday, I think 95-97 may be more like it both days. Factor in the humidity, and it may well feel over 100. Overnight temperatures probably won't offer much relief, with lows 71-76 (suburbs-city).
Hot and humid, chance of storms. As of now, computer models show a cold front approaching the area by late Sunday, perhaps (25% chance) triggering some storms and offering some relief from the heat and humidity by early next week. Expect one more hot day though, with highs in the low 90s.
Today
Mostly cloudy and humid, chance of showers. A warm front will slowly drift northward from central Virginia towards the metro area with disturbances running along it. These disturbances will produce rain, with the best coverage (and heaviest amounts) north of the front (towards southern Pennsylvania). Nonetheless, we can expect a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening. Clouds and northerly winds (as we'll be north of the front much of the day) will hold high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight, it will be mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Lows should be in the mid to upper 60s.The Upcoming Week at a Glance
Warmest Days: Friday and Saturday, 95.
Coolest Day: Today, 76.
Rain Chances: Today (40%), Tuesday (50%), Wednesday (20%), Sunday (25%)
Dry Days: Thursday through Saturday.
The Week's Wild Cards: Will the immediate metro area receive soaking, beneficial rains early in the week or just spotty showers? How hot will it get late in the week? Will a cold front trigger thunderstorms late Sunday?
Climatological Average High/Low: 86-85/69-68
Pictured: Infrared image of Hurricane Dean at 1am Monday morning, courtesy Wundergound.com (click link for current image). After clipping Jamaica, Dean continues on a path towards the Yucatan Peninsula and ultimately (based on consistent model guidance) the Mexican Gulf Coast. Dean is a Category 4 storm and could reach Category 5 levels at some point before interacting with land.
Warmest Days: Friday and Saturday, 95.
Coolest Day: Today, 76.
Rain Chances: Today (40%), Tuesday (50%), Wednesday (20%), Sunday (25%)
Dry Days: Thursday through Saturday.
The Week's Wild Cards: Will the immediate metro area receive soaking, beneficial rains early in the week or just spotty showers? How hot will it get late in the week? Will a cold front trigger thunderstorms late Sunday?
Climatological Average High/Low: 86-85/69-68
Pictured: Infrared image of Hurricane Dean at 1am Monday morning, courtesy Wundergound.com (click link for current image). After clipping Jamaica, Dean continues on a path towards the Yucatan Peninsula and ultimately (based on consistent model guidance) the Mexican Gulf Coast. Dean is a Category 4 storm and could reach Category 5 levels at some point before interacting with land.
Cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. The stalled frontal boundary, draped across the region, won't move much on Tuesday. A disturbance moving along this front will contain some of the remnant energy and moisture from once Tropical Storm Erin -- so we could see some enhanced rainfall on Tuesday if the rain shield extends far enough southward. Let's call it mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers and storms, capable of putting down some heavy rain. It's not a sure thing, but it looks to be our best chance of appreciable rain this week. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to near 80. Overnight, we'll have a chance of showers and storms early, then partly cloudy skies, with lows 65-70 (suburbs-city).Very warm and humid. The previously stalled front over Pennsylvania is going to lift northward, allowing high pressure to start to build in from the south. This will heat things up a bit. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated storm or two could form in the late afternoon, but chances are pretty slim. Overnight, it will be mostly clear, with lows 65-70 (suburbs-city).Pictured: Enjoying the weather Saturday at Lake Accotink near Springfield, VA. By late this week, being on (or, better, in) the water will be an inviting way to cool off. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
Partly sunny, hot and humid. The already humid airmass is likely to turn hot, making for uncomfortable conditions. Look for high temperatures in the low 90s with peak heat indices nearing the century mark. Overnight, it will likely be muggy, with lows 70-75 (suburbs-city).Oppressive heat and humidity. With the jet stream taking a big jog to the north and a hot ridge of high pressure over the southeast and mid-Atlantic, the weather pattern is going to be a hot one. While the the National Weather Service (at press time) is calling for a high of 87 Friday and 91 Saturday, I think 95-97 may be more like it both days. Factor in the humidity, and it may well feel over 100. Overnight temperatures probably won't offer much relief, with lows 71-76 (suburbs-city). Sunday
Hot and humid, chance of storms. As of now, computer models show a cold front approaching the area by late Sunday, perhaps (25% chance) triggering some storms and offering some relief from the heat and humidity by early next week. Expect one more hot day though, with highs in the low 90s.
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