Friday, September 14, 2007
Clouds May Play, But They Won't Stay
Pleasant temperatures will!
A. Camden Walker @ 11:45 AM
We have generally overcast skies in our forecast today and tonight; but, rain is not a widespread threat to your commute. Before and after the skies clear on Saturday, temperatures in the 70s to around 80 will feel mighty fine...
Gray but Pleasant. Rain likely tonight. Plenty of clouds will keep down you sun tanners out there, yet temperatures around 80 degrees will still feel invigorating enough (with a little summery stickiness). A slight southerly breeze should stay tame, unless you have a thundershower nearby. Luckily there's only a 20% chance of that happening during the afternoon hours.
Overnight, rain chances increase as a strong cold front approaches. There is close to a 60% chance of a batch of showers and thunderstorms moving through the Metro Area during the early morning hours. Skies will remain almost completely overcast overnight. Low temperatures in the region should stay fairly uniform, in the 62-65 degree range.
On Tuesday near The Ellipse, facing south on 17th street, a small plane takes off from National Airport. [A. Camden Walker]
Drying and Clearing. Damp spots will get a chance to dry as the sun breaks through during the morning hours. High temperatures will steady out in the middle-to-upper 70s. The afternoon should be stellar. As humidity levels slowly decrease, note that wind speeds may increase. We gotta usher in that cooler, dryer air somehow, right??
Winds will likely remain brisk overnight. Clouds will all be blown away, to produce clear, crisp conditions. Downtown may dip into the mid-50s. The Shenandoah Valley may hit 48? That is "crisp" for what we've been used to, I would say!
Much nicer. Clear skies and dry conditions will only top-off your weather euphoria, with high temperatures around 70 degrees. I hear autumn knocking at the door. Winds will simmer down slowly throughout the day, hopefully being but only a breeze by sunset. I personally hope I can get my new kite down to The Mall before full abatement!
Golly. Within just hours last night, Humberto increased from winds of 35mph to 85mph. Citizens along the boarder of Texas and Louisiana went to bed with a tropical storm, but unlucky souls near the point of landfall suddenly bore the brunt of a decidedly strengthening hurricane. Luckily it came ashore after just being born 18 hours prior.
I myself went to bed with discussion statements "closeness to shore means it won't strengthen much" [paraphrased] from the NHC and other media outlets. I very rarely sense a need to question fellow meteorologists. But why would a Senior Hurricane Specialist be quoted in the paper saying such things? Arguably the world's best tropical cyclone forecasting organization, the National Hurricane Center & Tropical Prediction Center, is certainly not omniscient--but I think they have neat hi-tech tools & might know how to figure some things out. Perhaps.
Yet James Franklin gave me my quote of the week ("It would be nice to know..."). He is the NHC's senior hurricane specialist. Either he really does not know how to talk to the press, or he really does not know how to look at his own organization's research into such items as Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, or SHIPS model improvement after, curiously, Hurricane Opal unexpectedly bombed out before landfall. No let's keep scratching our heads and marvel, to the Associated Press, how no other cyclone in history has blah blah blah. Glad to see NOAA's high-definition hurricane model is not a help (or not supplied with the proper variables derived from good research?)
Science has its unknowns, but government "scientists" don't just stammer at not knowing where to look so that public fears COULD THIS HAPPEN AGAIN are allayed. Think before you verbally scratch your head in public next time, I'd say. Or at least describe a personal sense of scientific astonishment rather than undermine your own expertise bestowed upon you by--yeah who was it that appointed you please?
A New Development
Watch with me, the newly formed Tropical Storm Ingrid. It is moving very slowly, thus any U.S. impact is still at least 8 days away. 5-day (Wednesday) forecasts indicate a cone of uncertainty from just southwest of Bermuda, to just east of the Bahamas.
Despite this being peak-season in the Atlantic Basin--and conditions typically being the most favorable for development of any other time--Ingrid is not expected to become a hurricane.
Today
Gray but Pleasant. Rain likely tonight. Plenty of clouds will keep down you sun tanners out there, yet temperatures around 80 degrees will still feel invigorating enough (with a little summery stickiness). A slight southerly breeze should stay tame, unless you have a thundershower nearby. Luckily there's only a 20% chance of that happening during the afternoon hours.Overnight, rain chances increase as a strong cold front approaches. There is close to a 60% chance of a batch of showers and thunderstorms moving through the Metro Area during the early morning hours. Skies will remain almost completely overcast overnight. Low temperatures in the region should stay fairly uniform, in the 62-65 degree range.
Sun & Plane Both Rise on The Corcoran Gallery
On Tuesday near The Ellipse, facing south on 17th street, a small plane takes off from National Airport. [A. Camden Walker]
Saturday
Drying and Clearing. Damp spots will get a chance to dry as the sun breaks through during the morning hours. High temperatures will steady out in the middle-to-upper 70s. The afternoon should be stellar. As humidity levels slowly decrease, note that wind speeds may increase. We gotta usher in that cooler, dryer air somehow, right??Winds will likely remain brisk overnight. Clouds will all be blown away, to produce clear, crisp conditions. Downtown may dip into the mid-50s. The Shenandoah Valley may hit 48? That is "crisp" for what we've been used to, I would say!
Sunday
Much nicer. Clear skies and dry conditions will only top-off your weather euphoria, with high temperatures around 70 degrees. I hear autumn knocking at the door. Winds will simmer down slowly throughout the day, hopefully being but only a breeze by sunset. I personally hope I can get my new kite down to The Mall before full abatement!"It would be nice to know, someday, why this happened"
Golly. Within just hours last night, Humberto increased from winds of 35mph to 85mph. Citizens along the boarder of Texas and Louisiana went to bed with a tropical storm, but unlucky souls near the point of landfall suddenly bore the brunt of a decidedly strengthening hurricane. Luckily it came ashore after just being born 18 hours prior.
I myself went to bed with discussion statements "closeness to shore means it won't strengthen much" [paraphrased] from the NHC and other media outlets. I very rarely sense a need to question fellow meteorologists. But why would a Senior Hurricane Specialist be quoted in the paper saying such things? Arguably the world's best tropical cyclone forecasting organization, the National Hurricane Center & Tropical Prediction Center, is certainly not omniscient--but I think they have neat hi-tech tools & might know how to figure some things out. Perhaps.
Yet James Franklin gave me my quote of the week ("It would be nice to know..."). He is the NHC's senior hurricane specialist. Either he really does not know how to talk to the press, or he really does not know how to look at his own organization's research into such items as Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, or SHIPS model improvement after, curiously, Hurricane Opal unexpectedly bombed out before landfall. No let's keep scratching our heads and marvel, to the Associated Press, how no other cyclone in history has blah blah blah. Glad to see NOAA's high-definition hurricane model is not a help (or not supplied with the proper variables derived from good research?)
Science has its unknowns, but government "scientists" don't just stammer at not knowing where to look so that public fears COULD THIS HAPPEN AGAIN are allayed. Think before you verbally scratch your head in public next time, I'd say. Or at least describe a personal sense of scientific astonishment rather than undermine your own expertise bestowed upon you by--yeah who was it that appointed you please?
A New Development
Watch with me, the newly formed Tropical Storm Ingrid. It is moving very slowly, thus any U.S. impact is still at least 8 days away. 5-day (Wednesday) forecasts indicate a cone of uncertainty from just southwest of Bermuda, to just east of the Bahamas.
Despite this being peak-season in the Atlantic Basin--and conditions typically being the most favorable for development of any other time--Ingrid is not expected to become a hurricane.
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