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Will Gabrielle Graze Us?
Weekend warm and mainly dry

Jason Samenow @ 6:45 AM

[Sub]Tropical Storm Gabrielle (Gabi) formed last night and is headed towards the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow. Except for a possible increase in clouds tomorrow afternoon, she should not significantly influence our weather until Sunday night, if even then. Most of the weekend will be dry and rather muggy.


Forecast Confidence: HighHot and humid. We'll be sandwiched in between the tropical system to the southeast and a cold front to the northwest. So we'll be served sticky southerly flow and heat. High temperatures should range from 88-93, and it will feel like the mid 90s factoring in the humidity. Mostly clear skies overnight, with lows 67-72 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: HighVery warm, increase in clouds late? We should awake to mainly sunny skies, before some clouds possibly move in during the afternoon as Gabi likely nears landfall in the Carolinas. Right now it appears as if the day time hours should be dry, but I cannot rule out (25% chance) a few showers running out ahead of Gabi some time in the afternoon, especially to the south and east. High temperatures should range from 84-88 and it will be humid.

The Gift of Gab(i)?

It's not often that we pull for tropical systems to affect our area, but given the current moderate drought, some soaking rain from Gabi would be welcome. Unfortunately, this is only a slim possibility. Right now, after the models bring Gabi ashore in the Carolinas, nearly every one of them curves her back to sea south of Virginia Beach. In such a scenario, most of her precipitation would stay south and east of the metro area with only a glancing blow possible late Sunday into Monday. However, as the eastern half of the metro area is mear the edge of the National Hurricane Center's Track Forecast Cone, it's too early to entirely rule out a period of rain and gusty winds (particularly in places like Salisbury and towards the Eastern Shore) especially Sunday night into the first half of Monday.

Gabi Satellite Image | Gabi Model Forecasts | Gabi Discussion from Hurricane Center

Pictured: The Track Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Gabi as of 11pm last night. Courtesy NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

Gabi Gab

Here are what meteorological experts are saying about Gabi online...
  • DC/Baltimore National Weather Service (Sterling): "It looks like the only effects [from Gabi] that we will see here will be tides somewhat above normal." (I think NWS is probably right, but I would caution it's a bit premature to entirely rule out additional effects.)
  • Meteorologist Tony Pann (WUSA), as posted yesterday here at "I don't think we should write off this system just yet..."
  • Meteorologist Jeff Masters at "...shear, combined with the rather large and poorly-organized circulation, will not allow much intensification, and Gabrielle will have a tough time becoming stronger than a 55-mph storm at landfall."
  • AccuWeather: "According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, if the storm develops to its full potential, there could be substantial coastal flooding in the Virginia Tidewater, northeastern North Carolina and the eastern part of the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday and Monday."

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