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Clouds & Rain Continue Through Saturday
Total Rainfall Amounts of 2-4" Are Likely

Josh Larson @ 12:50 PM

After what's felt like an eternity of severe drought conditions, several factors are finally lining up to bring the potential for several inches of drought-busting rain over the next 60 hours. A nearly stationary front and associated area of low pressure will keep thick clouds and showers in our forecast until late Saturday. The sun, along with drier conditions, however, will re-emerge on Sunday.

Pictured: visitor PJ Dunn took this shot of the sun rising over Potomac Yard on Tuesday; it will not be until Sunday when we see another sunrise.


Confidence: HighCloudy & showers. Thick overcast skies, noticeably cooler temperatures than yesterday, periodic showers, and possibly a few periods of heavier rain will team up to provide somewhat raw-feeling conditions today. Expect high temperatures in the upper 50s amidst breezy NE winds. Lingering periods of rain overnight, with nearly-steady lows in the mid 50s.


Forecast Confidence: MediumBetter potential for steadier and heavier rain. Thick overcast skies along with periodic showers and heavier periods of rain will color the day Friday, though you can expect high temperatures a notch warmer in the low to mid 60s. Showers and potentially heavy rain will continue Friday night, with overnight lows near 60.

The Weekend

Confidence: High-Very HighWet Saturday; Dry Sunday. Expect overcast skies and milder conditions on Saturday along with scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Highs will be near 70, with a little late-afternoon partial clearing possible. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. We'll see a return of partly to mostly sunny skies on Sunday, with cooler afternoon highs back into the mid 60s. Clear and noticeably cooler Sunday night, with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Marine Corps Marathon

Weather for Sunday's Marine Corps Marathon looks quite nice as the next few days' moisture will have cleared the area by Sunday morning. I expect partly sunny and breezy conditions (NW winds ~10mph) at the start time of 8am, with temperatures in the upper 50s; expect mostly sunny and pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s for the Awards Ceremony at 12:30pm.

Pattern Overview

A closed-off upper-level low over the southeastern US combined with a nearly-stationary frontal system and associated area of low pressure will interact to produce the likelihood of 1-3" of drought-easing rains over the next 3 days. Though we won't see the sun again until late Saturday, if not Sunday morning, I think it's a fair price to pay for these very beneficial rains. After a cold front pushes through on Saturday, we'll see cooler weather on Sunday and seasonably cool weather for Monday. All indications are that the remainder of the work week will feature largely dry weather along with ample sunshine and near-normal temperatures.

Pictured: the GFS forecast model shows an upper-level low cut off from the main flow pattern today over the SE US; this is a great setup for several days of beneficial rains.


Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 61/45 (normal = 63/44)
Forecast precip: Near-normal?

Confidence: High-Very High Look for mostly sunny and seasonably cool temperatures on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 and chilly overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. The forecast for Tuesday and Halloween Wednesday calls for continued mostly sunny and dry weather with highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From this far vantage point, the outlook for Thursday and Friday calls for continued fair and dry weather with highs from the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

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