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Can Cold Front Make Dent in Drought, Warmth?

Matt Ross @ 10:45 AM

The cold front due to arrive late today could give us some much-needed rain, but how much is a big question mark. It now looks like the front could linger longer than originally expected, giving us a chance of showers into tomorrow. Through midweek, temperatures while cooler, will still be above normal. Whether we achieve the warmest October on record (since 1871) is no longer a question of if, but by how much. Currently we are running 9.9 degrees above normal for the month. Our warmest October on record (1984) finished 6.4 degrees above normal.

Today and Tonight

Forecast Confidence: HighWarm, Chance of Showers. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. A cold front approaching from the west will lose a lot of its punch as it enters the drought conditions of Metro DC, but should still spawn some light/moderate showers (50% chance) late this afternoon and evening, especially to the west. Locally some may receive up to .50" of rain, but probably not the drought buster we need. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 70s. Overnight a continuing 50% chance of showers with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Image to the right shows nice color in Glover Park on Sunday, courtesy of Photographer, Ian Livingston.


Forecast Confidence: MediumLingering clouds, showers? While before the thinking was that the front would clear the area and Wednesday would bring gradual clearing, it now seems the front may stall out and give us considerable clouds along with the possibility of more showers tomorrow. Highs should be seasonably warm near 70 degrees. Refer to Dan's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.

A Waxing Gibbous Moon Sunday evening via telescope by guest, David Abbou.

October Miscellany

*Through yesterday, October is averaging 2.5 degrees warmer than last September.

*October could average 10 degrees below normal from today through the 31st and would still finish in the top 10 warmest on record.

*Through today we will have 21 70 degree days so far this month, only 2 days away from tying the record of 23 set in October 1947.

*October 2007 will not crack the list of ten coldest Septembers on record. September averages 12 degrees warmer than October.

Atlanta Drought

While we sit on the northeastern fringes of the current drought, the Tennessee Valley has been ground zero. The governor of Georgia declared a state of emergency on Saturday as Atlanta is running 17" below normal precipitation year to date. Lake Lanier which supplies water to most of metro Atlanta, is less than 3 months away from complete depletion, and there is no backup plan in place. Restrictions on outdoor watering, water in restaurants and shower length already in place may have to be expanded.

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