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When Will The Rainless Streak End?
Thursday and Friday both present rain chances

Jason Samenow @ 1:00 AM

Rain chances are slim to none today, so Reagan National Airport (DCA) is poised to tie its longest streak without measurable precipitation on record -- an impressive feat. However, a rain-producing frontal system may prevent DCA from breaking the record Thursday or extending it on Friday. Whether it's wet or dry, warm conditions will persist through the weekend and beyond.


Nice Day StampPartly sunny, unseasonably warm. Southerly flow will help tap temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal. Expect a mix of clouds and sunshine with highs 78-82. Overnight, it will be partly to mostly cloudy, with lows 55-60 (suburbs-city)


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighMostly cloudy, slight chance of showers. A warm front will lift through the area, resulting in considerable cloud cover and a 30% chance of scattered showers. The best chance of rain will occur in the morning to early afternoon. Despite the clouds, temperatures will remain on the warm side, with highs in the mid 70s.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighWarm with PM showers and storms possible. A cold front will approach the area with very warm and humid air out ahead of it. Most of the day should be partly sunny and bit a breezy, with high temperatures 80-85. During the late afternoon and evening, clouds will increase and there's a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center suggests some storms late Friday could be severe. Some of these showers may linger overnight as the front passes by. Low temperatures should range from 55-60 (suburbs-city).

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: HighDecreasing clouds, dry, and mild. Saturday will likely be on the breezy side behind the front and a bit cooler (though still warmer than average). Expect partly sunny skies with highs 70-75. Winds should diminish under clear skies overnight, with lows 50-55 (suburbs-city). On Sunday, expect mostly sunny and warm conditions, with highs 74-78.

Record Heat Early Next Week?

Last week I said we wouldn't probably hit 90 again until well into next spring (or early in the summer) simply because it's never hit 90 after October 11 and before March 22. The latest model guidance suggests Monday (and possibly Tuesday -- depending on the timing of a cold front) could be quite warm, with temperatures well into the 80s. Even 90, while unlikely, can't be ruled out. If we hit 90, it would be unprecedented. During the second half of October (16-31) at DCA, consider we have (thanks to Matt Ross for these numbers):

Never reached 90
Hit 89 Twice
Hit 88 Once
Hit 87 Once
Hit 86 3 times
Hit 85 6 times

So even if we only reach the mid 80s, it will be a big story. The records for next Monday and Tuesday are 85 and 84, respectively.

Pictured: A computer model simulation (ECMWF) from yesterday shows very warm temperatures forecasted for next Monday. The projected upper level temperatures shown (of 18-19 degrees C about a mile up) would suggest the possibility of surface temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees.

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