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Will This August-like Weather Ever End?!
Yes, But Not Until the Middle of Next Week

Josh Larson @ 8:30 AM

Though the calendar says October, over the next five days the temperatures and humidity levels will resemble those of mid to late August; and despite uncomfortably high humidity levels -- yet again -- little or no precipitation appears likely, at least until the middle of next week when a cold front may finally cool us down to more, though still not entirely, October-appropriate levels.


Confidence: HighWarmer + humid. Plenty of morning clouds and fog will give way to at least partial sunshine by early afternoon along with continued high humidity levels. Depending on the amount of sunshine specific locations see, highs will likely reach the mid to upper 80s. Some clouds likely overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s.


Forecast Confidence: MediumRepeat. Expect similar conditions as today on Friday, though temperatures may be a few degrees cooler. Patchy morning fog will give way to mostly sunny afternoon skies with highs in the low to mid 80s. Mostly clear and mild overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

The Weekend

Confidence: High-Very HighUnpleasant...for October. Unlike last weekend's reprieve from the heat and humidity, this weekend will feature temperatures a whopping 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year with equally unwelcome humidity levels. Both Saturday and Sunday should feature plenty of sunshine with highs ranging from the mid 80s to 90 (and I wouldn't discount the possibility of a few locations reaching the low 90s on Sunday). It will also be muggy both nights with overnight lows from 65-70.

Pattern Overview

The bad news is that we'll likely have to deal with August-like heat and humidity (along with relentlessly dry conditions) for at least the next 5 days due to a continued abnormally strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern US; the good news is that there are fairly strong indications that a potent cold front may approach our region by Wednesday of next week, bringing with it a shot for rain along with the likelihood of temperatures at least some 10 degrees cooler in its wake. By the middle to latter part of next week most computer models suggest a nearly zonal flow pattern will be overhead, bringing temperatures back to near to only slightly-above normal levels.

Pictured: CPC's "D+7" SuperEnsemble model predicts a nearly zonal flow pattern establishing itself by the middle to latter part of next week.

Tropical Update

Though there is no particularly eventful tropical activity in the Atlantic basin at present, there are two specific areas of low pressure of note -- one in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the other near the Bahamas -- each of which has a chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next few days. Other than that, there are a couple of currently-benign nascent disturbances in the eastern Atlantic.

Pictured: Current tropical activity in the Atlantic; courtesy Accuweather.


Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 78/61 (normal = 70/52)
Forecast precip: Near-normal?

Confidence: High-Very HighLook for abundant sunshine along with hot and humid conditions for Columbus Day Monday with highs near (or perhaps slightly above?) 90 in most locations. Tuesday looks to feature increasing clouds with a chance of late-day showers or thunderstorms and cooler highs nearer to 80 and overnight lows in the mid 60s. Wednesday looks to feature mostly cloudy conditions and possible showers, especially during the first half of the day, with cooler highs in the upper 70s and more comfortable overnight lows in the upper 50s. From this far vantage point, (cooler) high pressure looks to build back in for Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies and considerably more comfortable daytime highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 50s.

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