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Mother Nature Skips A Season
Wintry chill in the air: What happened to fall?

Jason Samenow @ 8:00 AM

After half of the days in October were in the 80s and 90s, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s as we close out the first week of November. Will 2007 be remembered as the year without a fall?


Forecast Confidence: HighPartly sunny, brisk. Cold at night. As the jet stream dips down south of the Mid-Atlantic, cool air will flow in to the region. The sky will feature a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures around 50. Winds will blow from the northwest at around 10-15mph. Overnight, winds will slacken and skies will clear. Temperatures will drop below freezing pretty much everywhere except downtown and the close-in suburbs with lows 28-35.

Pictured: The 24 hour temperature change between 10pm last night and 10pm Monday night over the Mid-Atlantic. Most places saw 10-20 degree drops.


Forecast Confidence: HighSunny but chilly. Cold high pressure will give us plenty of sunshine, but temperatures will only slowly recover from frosty morning low. High temperatures will once again be near 50 degrees -- which is about 10 degrees below average. Overnight, clear skies early will yield to increasing high clouds towards morning, with lows 33-38 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: HighCloudy and cool. A stray shower? A clipper system will swing through the region from the west. Most of its precipitation will get squeezed out by the mountains, but a sprinkle or shower can't be ruled out in the afternoon (30% chance). Cloud cover should hold high temperatures between 45-50. Overnight, a few showers could linger -- especially east of town as low pressure develops offshore. A few wet snowflakes might mix in if the precipitation lingers long enough overnight, but the likelihood is pretty low. Overnight low temperatures should range from 32-37 (suburbs-city).

The Weekend

Forecast Confidence: HighBecoming mostly sunny, still cool. High pressure will build into the region on Saturday as low pressure moves well to the northeast. Any lingering cloudiness should clear, with afternoon highs 50-55. On Sunday, high pressure will dominate much of the East Coast, meaning mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 50s.

Founding Fathers, Weather Wonks

American Scientist has a fascinating in-depth article on the meticulous weather records maintained by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison and their intellectual pursuit of proper observing methods. The article concludes:
...the stark numbers of their [Jefferson and Madison] meteorological records add a different and objective dimension to their remarkable legacies - and open a window into their revolutionary minds.
The article is written by Susan Solomon who chaired the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report on climate change science, John S. Daniel (a NOAA research scientist) and Dan Druckenbrod (who, interestingly, was my ecology teach assistant at UVA). Thanks to the Weather Guys at USA Today for pointing out this article.

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