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Temperatures To See-Saw Slightly
Winter weather threat for Sunday diminishing

Jason Samenow @ 9:00 AM

The next several days will feature fairly benign weather, although temperatures will oscillate a bit. 50-degree weather today will warm to near 60 tomorrow before returning to 50 again on Friday. The next storm system should arrive early Sunday, likely to bring mainly rain to the metro area.


Forecast Confidence: High-Very HighSunny and cool. Canadian high pressure will give us sunny skies, light winds and seasonably cool temperatures. 49-53 degrees should do it for the high. Clear and cold overnight, with lows 27-33 (suburbs-city).

Pictured: Vibrant orange and red foliage in Glover Park on Sunday. By photographer Ian Livingston.


Forecast Confidence: Medium-HighPartly cloudy, mild. Southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will bring us a short-lived warm-up. High temperatures should range from 55-60 under partly cloudy skies. At best, there's a 20% chance of a passing shower. Southwesterly winds of 10-15mph will become northwesterly as the cold front passes through the area during the afternoon. Overnight, these winds will diminish and skies will clear, with lows 26-32 (suburbs-city).


Forecast Confidence: HighMostly sunny and seasonably cool. Friday will be a lot like today. Canadian high pressure overhead will deliver light winds, fair skies and characteristic late November temperatures. High temperatures should be right around 50.

A Look Ahead

  • Saturday should be mostly sunny with some high clouds moving in during the afternoon, with highs 45-50.
  • Clouds increase Saturday night with a 30% chance of rain or a wintry mix (especially N&W of DC) towards morning, with lows 33-38.
  • A rainy Sunday appears likely, with temperatures in the 40s.
  • Gradual clearing and cold on Monday, with the cold persisting through at least a week from today.

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball: Where art thou?

Yesterday saw the season's Snow Lover's Crystal Ball (SLCB) debut. Today, it's gone. The threat of accumulating snow has dropped below 20% based on my assessment of recent computer model forecasts. Matt appropriately cautioned yesterday that "the storm could cut well to our west and bring us just a cool rainstorm." This scenario appears highly likely at the moment (>80% chance). It's not to say there isn't a lingering possibility some snow could fall and that it could even accumulate, but odds are overwhelmingly against it.

A lot of times this winter the SLCB may appear based on the potential for snow 3, 4 or up to 7 days away. But pay close attention to the probabilities assigned to this potential. For potential events 3+ days away, the probability will characteristically be less than 50%. That's because 1) confidence in forecasting more than 3 days out is low AND 2) many snow events simulated by models don't materialize. Personally, I wouldn't start to get too excited about a potential snow event until you see probabilities at least in the 50-60% range -- when accumulating snow chances shift from being *possible* to being *probable.*

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