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Mild and Unsettled Through Mid Week
Carefully watching potential weekend storm

Matt Ross @ 5:30 PM

***5:30pm Update***

Latest models are starting to converge on a possible solution for the weekend storm. One scenario would start everyone off with snow around midday on Saturday. DC and its southern and eastern suburbs could then change to sleet and/or rain for a period, before possibly changing back to all snow. However, other scenarios are still in play. The details will be hard to nail down until Thursday or Friday. So keep checking here for further updates.


Earlier post

A stationary front near our area will vacillate throughout mid week as cold air to the north and warm air to the south find a battleground in the mid Atlantic. Moist air will prevail through the week, yet meaningful precipitation will remain to our north.


Forecast Confidence: HighCloudy, Damp. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. Cooler air will be hard to scour out, yet southerly winds should break up some of the shallow, cold air and allow afternoon highs to reach the mid 50s. There may be a sprinkle or shower here or there, but nothing too impressive. Tonight will remain overcast with some drizzle or light rain possible (30%). Overnight lows will be well above normal in the mid to upper 40s.


Forecast Confidence: MediumOvercast, Mild. Skies will again be cloudy with some light showers or drizzle possible throughout the day. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 50s, with 60+ possible, especially in southern areas. Overnight, moisture will stream in from the southwest. There is a 40% chance of showers or light/moderate rain. Low temperatures will fall to upper 30s.


Forecast Confidence: MediumCloudy, Showers. On Thursday, there will be a 40% chance of showers/rain with a bit cooler temperatures in the low 50s. Overnight, rain chances will diminish with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

A Look Ahead

  • On Friday Skies will clear with more seasonable weather. Highs should be in the upper 40s.
  • The weekend looks unsettled with a storm system approaching from the southwest. See more on the potential below.

Snow Lover's Crystal Ball

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday, December 15th - Monday, December 17th.
Probability: 20%
Potential Impact:
Commentary: As cooler high pressure settles over the area at the start of the weekend, a potent storm system will approach from the southwest. It is still much too early to parse through the details, but it does look probable that a storm system will affect our area late Saturday into Sunday/Monday. While the current guidance is fairly consistent that a strong storm with lots of Gulf moisture will affect the area, the track of the storm is still in doubt. A stronger, more inland track will likely bring snow at the beginning followed by a changeover to sleet/rain and then possibly back to snow as the coastal storm takes over. A weaker, slower, more coastal solution would bring greater amounts of snow with less likelihood of mixing or rain.. There is the potential for a big event, but the percentage of snow versus mix/rain is still very much up in the air. This is a storm potential worth following, and we will certainly keep you updated with the latest.

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