Sunday, December 16, 2007
Raging Winds Ready to Rip Region
Precipitation pulling away
Jason Samenow @ 10:20 AM
*Wind Advisory in Effect from this 1pm afternoon through 6am Monday morning.*
In the wake of last night's soaking rain in the metro area and a bit of icing north and west, very strong winds will blow in as the precipitation gradually diminishes (possibly ending as sleet and/or snow -- especially north and west). Gusts up to 50mph are likely this afternoon, with a few power outages possible.
Occasional morning rain showers or mix, very gusty afternoon winds. The rain will gradually end this morning from southwest to northeast possibly mixing with or briefly change to sleet and snow before ending (especially north and west). But as the storm deepens over the Northeast, extremely strong winds will affect the entire region. From the National Weather Service:
Overnight, it should be mostly clear but still windy and quite cold. With lows 25-30 and winds 20-30mph, wind chills will be in the teens.
Windy and cold. While the weekend storm will have departed, it's large wind field will still bring blustery conditions to our area. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, but the cold northwest flow will only allow high temperatures to reach around 40 degrees -- with wind chills subfreezing most of the day. Fortunately, by evening, the winds should slacken a bit.
Without going into a lot of detail, I think we handled this past storm pretty well. We correctly indicated this would be mainly a rain event in DC and points south and east starting on Thursday. And in our Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, which we ran Tuesday through Thursday, we never indicated there was more than a 40% chance of accumulating snow. As early as Tuesday morning, I commented: "I'm not confident at all that there will be enough cold air for this to be a mostly snow event. The trend seems to be for more rain. But there is a lot of time for the details to change. My gut says rain is a major player with this storm but significant frozen precip cannot be ruled out." So, even when some of the computer models were shouting snow, we knew better than to jump on that bandwagon given climatology, the overall pattern/trends and experience. Furthermore, we correctly forecast the icing that occurred north and west of town.
If you had to nail us for one thing, it would have to be that for most spots inside the Beltway, hardly any frozen precipitation at all fell late Saturday afternoon and evening (a few sleet pellets and snowflakes mixed in with the rain here or there, but underperformed expectations) -- whereas we indicated some non-accumulating sleet and/or snow was possible. And further west, where we indicated some light snow could accumulate (less than 1") before changing over to ice, ice was the primary precipitation type.
Thanks to everyone who commented and participated in tracking this past storm. While the result was a disappointment for snow lover's, the chase was fun. If you didn't click on this link a couple weeks ago, click it now: The Anti-Snow Lover's Crystal Ball.
In the wake of last night's soaking rain in the metro area and a bit of icing north and west, very strong winds will blow in as the precipitation gradually diminishes (possibly ending as sleet and/or snow -- especially north and west). Gusts up to 50mph are likely this afternoon, with a few power outages possible.
Today
Occasional morning rain showers or mix, very gusty afternoon winds. The rain will gradually end this morning from southwest to northeast possibly mixing with or briefly change to sleet and snow before ending (especially north and west). But as the storm deepens over the Northeast, extremely strong winds will affect the entire region. From the National Weather Service: WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ... AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT FROM DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.While the main story will be the wind, it will also be quite chilly with temperatures near 40 (a bit colder N&W, and warmer S&E) in the morning and early afternoon falling to the mid 30s by evening. As the storm rapidly pulls away this afternoon, some breaks in the clouds and a bit of sunshine are possible.
Overnight, it should be mostly clear but still windy and quite cold. With lows 25-30 and winds 20-30mph, wind chills will be in the teens.
Monday
Windy and cold. While the weekend storm will have departed, it's large wind field will still bring blustery conditions to our area. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, but the cold northwest flow will only allow high temperatures to reach around 40 degrees -- with wind chills subfreezing most of the day. Fortunately, by evening, the winds should slacken a bit.
Post Storm Assessment
Without going into a lot of detail, I think we handled this past storm pretty well. We correctly indicated this would be mainly a rain event in DC and points south and east starting on Thursday. And in our Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, which we ran Tuesday through Thursday, we never indicated there was more than a 40% chance of accumulating snow. As early as Tuesday morning, I commented: "I'm not confident at all that there will be enough cold air for this to be a mostly snow event. The trend seems to be for more rain. But there is a lot of time for the details to change. My gut says rain is a major player with this storm but significant frozen precip cannot be ruled out." So, even when some of the computer models were shouting snow, we knew better than to jump on that bandwagon given climatology, the overall pattern/trends and experience. Furthermore, we correctly forecast the icing that occurred north and west of town.
If you had to nail us for one thing, it would have to be that for most spots inside the Beltway, hardly any frozen precipitation at all fell late Saturday afternoon and evening (a few sleet pellets and snowflakes mixed in with the rain here or there, but underperformed expectations) -- whereas we indicated some non-accumulating sleet and/or snow was possible. And further west, where we indicated some light snow could accumulate (less than 1") before changing over to ice, ice was the primary precipitation type.
Thanks to everyone who commented and participated in tracking this past storm. While the result was a disappointment for snow lover's, the chase was fun. If you didn't click on this link a couple weeks ago, click it now: The Anti-Snow Lover's Crystal Ball.
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