Saturday, May 21, 2005
Recovery...sort of
Jason Samenow @ 12:13 AM
After record setting rains yesterday at all three airports (National recorded 2.63", Dulles 1.85" and BWI 1.97"), the sun emerges today. But don't let your guard down. Due to a little bit of spin in the atmosphere and cold air aloft, some isolated showers could form late in the afternoon. The odds are just about 1/4, but don't be shocked if a few returns dot the radar.
Speaking of odds and returns, Afleet Alex is given 5:2 odds of winning the Preakness in Baltimore later today. Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo is given 9:2 odds. Coverage of the race begins at 5pm on NBC. Temperatures at race time should be in mid to high 60s with just a minimal chance of a shower. While yesterday's rain will make the track a bit soft, it tends to drain fairly well and the morning sunshine should aid the drying process.
What's with the cold?
Yesterday's ridiculous cold actually forced me to bring out the winter coat. The high yesterday was just 59 degrees, but that's deceiving because it occurred at midnight the evening prior. Temperatures struggled to get out of the low 50s yesterday afternoon. And it felt even colder than that due to the 25-30mph winds.
As I mentioned the other day, we've only made it to 80 or higher twice this month, and there are no signs of 80 degree warmth in the extended forecast. Blame the somewhat persistent east coast trough. If you're eagerly anticipating summer, you're out of luck -- but if 70 degree weather is your cup of tea -- then you're in business.
Speaking of odds and returns, Afleet Alex is given 5:2 odds of winning the Preakness in Baltimore later today. Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo is given 9:2 odds. Coverage of the race begins at 5pm on NBC. Temperatures at race time should be in mid to high 60s with just a minimal chance of a shower. While yesterday's rain will make the track a bit soft, it tends to drain fairly well and the morning sunshine should aid the drying process.
What's with the cold?
Yesterday's ridiculous cold actually forced me to bring out the winter coat. The high yesterday was just 59 degrees, but that's deceiving because it occurred at midnight the evening prior. Temperatures struggled to get out of the low 50s yesterday afternoon. And it felt even colder than that due to the 25-30mph winds.
As I mentioned the other day, we've only made it to 80 or higher twice this month, and there are no signs of 80 degree warmth in the extended forecast. Blame the somewhat persistent east coast trough. If you're eagerly anticipating summer, you're out of luck -- but if 70 degree weather is your cup of tea -- then you're in business.
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | 
Email this post
Email this post
Friday, May 20, 2005
Things that spin
Jason Samenow @ 12:17 AM
Bike wheels (even on a rainy day)
It's "Bike to Work Day" and the weather is miserable. An area of low pressure cycling through will bring steady rain this morning (particularly early), followed by scattered light rain and drizzle this afternoon. With northeasterly winds, expect highs only in the low 60s (or 15 degrees below average).
The heads of college students (after a few drinks)
For many area college seniors, it's graduation weekend, providing one last opportunity to party up on campus (or grounds for the Wahoos out there). The weather looks pretty good for commencement activities, including those happening at George Washington University and the University of Virginia.
Expect partly sunny skies Saturday with highs in the low 70s. On Sunday, some clouds may increase in the afternoon -- but all in all -- another good day, with highs again in the low 70s.
Tornadoes
Check out the latest issue of National Geographic that includes the feature article Inside Tornadoes. National Geographic's website includes awesome videos, including one in which a camera captures a 300-degree view inside the funnel.
Waterspouts
On Tuesday, severe storms photojournalist Jim Edds captured at least 5 waterspouts on tape in southeast Florida. Watch the video.
Hurricanes
The season's first Pacific basin hurricane formed yesterday, Hurricane Adrian. There has been much chatter about Adrian crossing over Central America into the Caribbean and reforming. But that's unlikely, according to the Tropical Prediction Center:
Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) can spin with the best of them. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has another article about his much-maligned bill: Researching Weather: Clouds in the forecast
It's "Bike to Work Day" and the weather is miserable. An area of low pressure cycling through will bring steady rain this morning (particularly early), followed by scattered light rain and drizzle this afternoon. With northeasterly winds, expect highs only in the low 60s (or 15 degrees below average).
The heads of college students (after a few drinks)
For many area college seniors, it's graduation weekend, providing one last opportunity to party up on campus (or grounds for the Wahoos out there). The weather looks pretty good for commencement activities, including those happening at George Washington University and the University of Virginia.
Expect partly sunny skies Saturday with highs in the low 70s. On Sunday, some clouds may increase in the afternoon -- but all in all -- another good day, with highs again in the low 70s.
Tornadoes
Check out the latest issue of National Geographic that includes the feature article Inside Tornadoes. National Geographic's website includes awesome videos, including one in which a camera captures a 300-degree view inside the funnel.
Waterspouts
On Tuesday, severe storms photojournalist Jim Edds captured at least 5 waterspouts on tape in southeast Florida. Watch the video.
Hurricanes
The season's first Pacific basin hurricane formed yesterday, Hurricane Adrian. There has been much chatter about Adrian crossing over Central America into the Caribbean and reforming. But that's unlikely, according to the Tropical Prediction Center:
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER SUCH ROUGH TOPOGRAPHY. NONETHELESS THE NHC FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. SHOULD ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION.Senators
Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) can spin with the best of them. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has another article about his much-maligned bill: Researching Weather: Clouds in the forecast
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | Email this post
Email this post
Thursday, May 19, 2005
A doe and two Joes
Jason Samenow @ 12:00 AM
Forecast firstA frontal system approaches today, bringing increasing clouds, and some light rain showers by evening. High temperatures should approach 70. By the way, we've only hit 80 or higher twice this month. Last May at this time, it had already been at least 80 on 12 different days during the month.
Showers are likely overnight and on and off tomorrow, when high temperatures will be near 70 once again. The weekend still looks good -- more details on that in tomorrow's edition...
Pictured: A doe in the thick, spring undergrowth in Oakton, VA on Sunday. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Brewers, 1:05pm, RFK
Expect mostly cloudy skies, but dry conditions. Temperatures will be comfortable, between 66 and 70 degrees.
Nationals vs. Brewers, 1:05pm, RFKExpect mostly cloudy skies, but dry conditions. Temperatures will be comfortable, between 66 and 70 degrees.
Joe Bastardi -- not as smart as he thinks
I admire AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi for the personality he conveys in his posts and for his knowledge of weather patterns. However, his arrogance sometimes rubs me the wrong way...particularly when he fails to be accountable for blown forecasts or goes on needless rants. His most recent promotional sample (free), while full of color, amounts to nothing more than a useless tirade. It is poorly written and lacking in substance. Frankly, I'm surprised AccuWeather featured it to lure new subscribers.
He bashes the NOAA press release from Monday that features the National Hurricane Center's forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. His beef is that a forecast for the number of the storms (predicted to be between 12-15, pictured on the left) provides "no added value" because it says nothing about if/where the storms will make landfall and what the damages will be. It takes him over 1300 words to say this. He alludes to AccuWeather's forecast and implicitly suggests it provides the "value-added" information NOAA does not. Let's evaluate what Bastardi and AccuWeather consider "value-added" information. Here are examples from the press release featuring AccuWeather's hurricane forecast:"Tropical activity in 2005 will again be above average," said Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Expert Senior Meteorologist and one of the world's leading hurricane forecasters. "The threat to interests on the U.S. mainland is greatest from North Carolina's Cape Hatteras to the mouth of the Rio Grande River."That sure tells me a lot, Joe. Your forecast encompasses a vast coastal zone where a huge percentage of the landfalls always occur.
"Property damage from 2005's storms is not expected to reach the magnitude of the devastating 2005 season. Bastardi projects total damage on the U.S. mainland to reach $6.5 billion in 2005."To attempt such a damage estimate is foolish. The amount of damage caused by a landfalling hurricane will depend heavily on exactly where it hits. For example, if one hurricane were to hit a major resort-area or city head-on during an inactive season, it could cause over $10 billion dollars in damage, easily. In an active season, if three hurricanes made landfall in sparsely populated areas, the damage may not exceed $5 billion. We cannot tell two or three days ahead of time whether a hurricane will hit within 100 miles of a given point. And 100 miles could make the difference between tremendous economic damages and relatively trival damages. So to make a damage estimate before the first storm has even formed is at best bad science, and at worst, irresponsible.
Joe Witte -- no dumby
Yesterday, Dan mentioned that Channel 7 weekend meteorologist Joe Witte had been named "Dumbest Weatherman" by Radar Magazine. Regardless of what you think about Joe's on-camera presentation -- let the record show he's a smart guy. He has undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology from University of Washington, which is one of the best programs in the country. Furthermore, this is a highly respected meteorologist who has risen to the top of his profession, landing gigs in major media markets (NYC and DC). If you wanna talk about dumb, look at the person on the left part of the cover in Radar's next issue (no comment on the person on the right). Can this rag be serious when it calls itself "your source for fresh intelligence"?
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | Email this post
Email this post
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Another Nice Day? ... Not for the BBC
Dan Stillman @ 12:00 AM
Our stretch of nice weather will try to hang on today, although we will be on the northern edge of a weak area of instability. Look for partly cloudy skies with some sunshine breaking through and highs in the low 70s. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and tonight, with overnight lows in the low-to-mid 50s.
Expect a better chance of showers and storms tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and evening, as low pressure approaches from the west. Mostly cloudy skies will keep high temps to the upper 60s. Continued unsettled on Friday -- Bike to Work Day -- with a good chance of showers and highs in the mid-60s.
Several area events this weekend, including the Preakness in Baltimore and the Northern Virginia Fine Arts Festival in Reston, have people hoping the weather will cooperate. The outlook is good right now. I think we'll be seeing dry weather with high temps in the 70s. I'm sure those playing in Saturday's Northern Virginia Wiffle Ball World Series will be pleased with that forecast. Let's just hope the wiffle ballers play nicer with each other than Washington's dueling kickballers.
Tornado Trends
Channel 7's Doug Hill did a story Monday on the increase in tornadoes in our region in recent years. The report addressed the question, "Is the area becoming a tornado alley?" Both the tornado outbreak spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Ivan this past September and the La Plata tornado of April 2002 (pictured to the right) were discussed. Imagine that -- a "crazy weather" story during sweeps.
A Graphic Scene
The BBC has changed its on-air weather graphics, and the natives are restless. The move from traditional weather symbols and maps to allegedly confusing and distorting 3-D zooms has caused quite a stir among viewers. Here's the skinny from the UK's DeadBrain and The Herald. The Scots are particularly unhappy according to reports in The Scotsman and by BBC News itself.
Freaky Forecaster
Did you catch Jason's freaky Friday the 13th post last week? Here's something else that's downright freaky: AccuWeather's WeatherHost. Animated caricatures of actual AccuWeather meteorologists deliver lip-synching summaries of the national forecast. Now there's a service I'm guessing the private weather industry doesn't have to worry about the National Weather Service duplicating. (Sorry ... couldn't go an entire post without getting in a Santorum bill reference.)
And finally, thanks to dcrtv.com for noticing this fishBowl DC blurb that mentions a story in the New York Daily News in which Channel 7 weather forecaster Joe Witte is labeled "The Dumbest Weatherman" by a soon-to-be-published Radar magazine poll. By my count, looking back at the previous sentence, CaptialWeather is four times removed from the publication bestowing this dubious honor on Witte in the first place. So no complaining to us, Channel 7. We're just one of several messengers.
Picture by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose
Expect a better chance of showers and storms tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and evening, as low pressure approaches from the west. Mostly cloudy skies will keep high temps to the upper 60s. Continued unsettled on Friday -- Bike to Work Day -- with a good chance of showers and highs in the mid-60s.
Several area events this weekend, including the Preakness in Baltimore and the Northern Virginia Fine Arts Festival in Reston, have people hoping the weather will cooperate. The outlook is good right now. I think we'll be seeing dry weather with high temps in the 70s. I'm sure those playing in Saturday's Northern Virginia Wiffle Ball World Series will be pleased with that forecast. Let's just hope the wiffle ballers play nicer with each other than Washington's dueling kickballers.
Tornado TrendsChannel 7's Doug Hill did a story Monday on the increase in tornadoes in our region in recent years. The report addressed the question, "Is the area becoming a tornado alley?" Both the tornado outbreak spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Ivan this past September and the La Plata tornado of April 2002 (pictured to the right) were discussed. Imagine that -- a "crazy weather" story during sweeps.
A Graphic Scene
The BBC has changed its on-air weather graphics, and the natives are restless. The move from traditional weather symbols and maps to allegedly confusing and distorting 3-D zooms has caused quite a stir among viewers. Here's the skinny from the UK's DeadBrain and The Herald. The Scots are particularly unhappy according to reports in The Scotsman and by BBC News itself.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05 p.m., RFK
Just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this evening. Temps will be comfortable -- in the mid-60s during the game.
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05 p.m., RFK Just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this evening. Temps will be comfortable -- in the mid-60s during the game.
Freaky Forecaster
Did you catch Jason's freaky Friday the 13th post last week? Here's something else that's downright freaky: AccuWeather's WeatherHost. Animated caricatures of actual AccuWeather meteorologists deliver lip-synching summaries of the national forecast. Now there's a service I'm guessing the private weather industry doesn't have to worry about the National Weather Service duplicating. (Sorry ... couldn't go an entire post without getting in a Santorum bill reference.)
And finally, thanks to dcrtv.com for noticing this fishBowl DC blurb that mentions a story in the New York Daily News in which Channel 7 weather forecaster Joe Witte is labeled "The Dumbest Weatherman" by a soon-to-be-published Radar magazine poll. By my count, looking back at the previous sentence, CaptialWeather is four times removed from the publication bestowing this dubious honor on Witte in the first place. So no complaining to us, Channel 7. We're just one of several messengers.
Picture by CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | Email this post
Email this post
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Perception Versus Reality
Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM
Forecast
Pleasant and seasonably cool weather will continue again today with Highs around 70 under decent cloud cover, with low 70s possible if the sun can win out. This will yield to very nice sleeping weather again tonight with lows in the low 50s.
Today's High Temps in Celsius Courtesy of Accuweather Shows the Coldest Air In The Pacific Northwest and New England
Wet, Dry, Warm, Cold
The streakiness of the weather so far in 2005 has not allowed us to get a good sense of how it has fared against norms. For instance, until this past Saturday's impressive deluge, the previous 30-40 days had been mostly dry at about 60% of normal precipitation, yet overall this year we are running slightly above normal at 1" over average. Additionally, we are running very close to normal temperatures in 2005, at one degree below normal through mid May. This steadiness is actually fairly common. Even though average yearly temperatures have gradually risen over time, there is much less variability in the overall yearly temperatures versus the more dramatic monthly variances that we experience. So while we get months or even seasons that we can characterize as cold or warm, wet or dry, whole years in which one type of weather predominates are uncommon. The year of 2003 was one such rarity as nine of the twelve months had below normal temperatures and was the coldest year since 1967, which is very impressive in this age of increasing temps. Furthermore, it was the wettest year in over 100 years. However, a year like 2003 is the exception rather than the rule.
Rain, Snow, and Sand?
In a remote, mountainous area in Northwestern China, 15 explorers working for a petroleum company were killed in a "freak" snow, rain and sandstorm. A local official said it was a once in a century event. In my opinion, I think we will continue to see these once in a lifetime events. Certainly part of the reason may be attributed to global warming and other environmental factors. However, I think an often overlooked reason is the lack of sample size with respect to our historical weather records. Thus we will continue to experience weather phenomena that while seemingly once in a lifetime or extraordinary, may actually not be as rare or novel as we think.
Pleasant and seasonably cool weather will continue again today with Highs around 70 under decent cloud cover, with low 70s possible if the sun can win out. This will yield to very nice sleeping weather again tonight with lows in the low 50s.
Today's High Temps in Celsius Courtesy of Accuweather Shows the Coldest Air In The Pacific Northwest and New England
Wet, Dry, Warm, Cold
The streakiness of the weather so far in 2005 has not allowed us to get a good sense of how it has fared against norms. For instance, until this past Saturday's impressive deluge, the previous 30-40 days had been mostly dry at about 60% of normal precipitation, yet overall this year we are running slightly above normal at 1" over average. Additionally, we are running very close to normal temperatures in 2005, at one degree below normal through mid May. This steadiness is actually fairly common. Even though average yearly temperatures have gradually risen over time, there is much less variability in the overall yearly temperatures versus the more dramatic monthly variances that we experience. So while we get months or even seasons that we can characterize as cold or warm, wet or dry, whole years in which one type of weather predominates are uncommon. The year of 2003 was one such rarity as nine of the twelve months had below normal temperatures and was the coldest year since 1967, which is very impressive in this age of increasing temps. Furthermore, it was the wettest year in over 100 years. However, a year like 2003 is the exception rather than the rule.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05pm, RFK
It will be a beautiful, dry night for baseball with gametime temps in the mid to upper 60's falling to around 60 by the end of the game with calm winds.
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05pm, RFK It will be a beautiful, dry night for baseball with gametime temps in the mid to upper 60's falling to around 60 by the end of the game with calm winds.
Rain, Snow, and Sand?
In a remote, mountainous area in Northwestern China, 15 explorers working for a petroleum company were killed in a "freak" snow, rain and sandstorm. A local official said it was a once in a century event. In my opinion, I think we will continue to see these once in a lifetime events. Certainly part of the reason may be attributed to global warming and other environmental factors. However, I think an often overlooked reason is the lack of sample size with respect to our historical weather records. Thus we will continue to experience weather phenomena that while seemingly once in a lifetime or extraordinary, may actually not be as rare or novel as we think.
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | Email this post
Email this post
Sunday, May 15, 2005
The week ahead, end of forecast contest, active hurricane season?
Jason Samenow @ 11:00 PM
After an unsettled weekend, the weather calms down substantially to start off the work week.High pressure builds into the region from the west today, meaning plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs should be near 70.
Tomorrow should, more or less, be a carbon copy of today.
Some high clouds may increase late Wednesday, but expect another dry day, with highs reaching the mid 70s.
On Thursday, a warm front will be in our vicinity, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs should be in the upper 60s.
Confidence in the forecast beyond Thursday is low. Right now, Friday and Saturday look to be mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers and highs near 70. A warming trend may begin next Sunday.
Tonight's NatCast
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05pm, RFK
Looks like a beautiful evening for baseball. Expect clear skies with temperatures falling from the upper 60s to the low 60s during the game.
Nationals vs. Brewers, 7:05pm, RFKLooks like a beautiful evening for baseball. Expect clear skies with temperatures falling from the upper 60s to the low 60s during the game.
Contest Deadline
The deadline for CapitalWeather.com's summer contest is today. The prize is an all-hazards weather radio (even if you don't want the prize, enter anyways and give it to a friend if you win). Entering is easy -- and literally takes under a minute. To enter (and for more information and rules), go to the Contests page.
Doom and gloom about the tropics
The Associated Press ran an article (thanks to WxNation for the link) in which a number of experts sound alarm bells about the upcoming hurricane season. Key quotes:
"We're in a new era now, and we're going to see a lot more major storms." - William Gray, Colorado State University
"Right now, the Atlantic looks very favorable for storms. The sea surface temperatures are incredibly warm, much warmer than normal, and the sea-level pressures have been quite low." - Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State UniversityImage (top right) courtesy AccuWeather
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | Email this post
Email this post
Yesterday's severe storms, today's forecast
Jason Samenow @ 12:43 AM
A severe thunderstorm approaches Falls Church, Saturday evening. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose
Often the weather affects an event, but once in a great while, the weather is an event in and of itself.
Last night, 20,000+ fans at the Nationals-Cubs game (including me), witnessed a display of firepower and intensity in the heavens unrivaled with any they may ever see on the baseball diamond. Shortly after 8pm, very dark, black scud clouds began to rapidly fill the sky, streaming in from the west side of RFK. Within a matter of several minutes, torrential sheets of rain were blowing from west to east across the stadium with awed fans (some frantic) fleeing for cover. Sustained winds of 30mph (estimate) with higher gusts, blew the large metal tube on which the tarp is rolled from the warning track in left-center field into short right-center field (or about 200 feet), as the crowd cheered.
The largest roar from the crowd came in direct response to a deafening clap of thunder that was accompanied by a vivid cloud to ground lightning strike in close proximity to the stadium. The thunder and lightning show, the wind and the rain were truly remarkable, captivating the crowd, perhaps moreso than the game itself -- played 2 hours and 45 minutes late due to the storm.
This severe thunderstorm had quite a legacy. Here are some select spotter reports from the storm:
- Wind damage in Fairfax, Annandale and Arlington --> Trees and wires down(Virginia)
- Funnel cloud in McLean (Virginia)
- 3/4" hail in Anacostia (Washington, DC)
- Wind damage in Prince Georges County (Maryland)
Today's forecast
The weather will remain unsettled today, but shouldn't be violent like yesterday. A cold front will move through the area, but quite slowly. After a few morning showers, the bulk of the afternoon looks ok, although a few showers could re-develop -- especially south and east of town, late in the afternoon and into the evening. High temperatures should be in the mid 70s.
NatCast
Nationals vs. Cubs, 1:05pm, RFK
I'm not expecting a repeat of last night's deluge. Skies should be mostly cloudy with just a 30% of some showers during the game. I'd put odds of a rain delay at just 20% and of a rain-out at 10%. Temperatures should be in the mid 70s.
Nationals vs. Cubs, 1:05pm, RFKI'm not expecting a repeat of last night's deluge. Skies should be mostly cloudy with just a 30% of some showers during the game. I'd put odds of a rain delay at just 20% and of a rain-out at 10%. Temperatures should be in the mid 70s.
Comments are closed for this archived entry | Link | Email this post
Email this post
