Saturday, April 09, 2005
Saturday update
Jason Samenow @ 5:42 AM
High pressure is building into the region from the northwest. This will allow for plenty of sunshine, with a few clouds mixed in and comfortable temperatures. Highs should be in the low 60s today, with a light easterly breeze.The weather will be excellent for Cherry Blossom viewing -- for more details, see the Washington Post's Blossom Guide. For other weekend ideas, see DCist's Weekend Picks.
Other Odds and Ends
- Skies will finally clear today at the Master's Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. High temps near 70. Who will win?
- Today's Washington Post has a feature on the threat of an asteroid collision with earth.
- Tomorrow, WUSA (Channel 9) Meteorologist Tony Pann and WMAR (Baltimore) Meteorologist Justin Berk will host the first segment of their new radio program, "Weather Talk." The topic on Sunday will be: How weather forecasts are made and perceived media hype on weather events. Anyone can call in and participate in the program. The show will air between 3 and 4pm on WCBM 680 AM.
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Friday, April 08, 2005
Late afternoon update
Steve Scolnik @ 4:00 PM
Currently
In spite of a cool northeast breeze and overcast skies, weak sunlight has pushed temperatures to a seasonable level in the mid 60's around the Washington metro area this afternoon. At the beach, the northeast wind pushed the temperature at Ocean City down from 57 this morning to 48 this afternoon. Although some light rain and drizzle continued overnight in the area, precipitation mostly ended by 7am. Regional radar is generally clear this afternoon, except for some widely scattered showers in southern West Virginia and southeastern Virginia. The weekend will be rain-free, but clouds will persist at least through Saturday, holding highs to the low 60's after a low tonight of 50.
Royal Wedding Outlook
After a recent warm spell in England, the outlook for the royal wedding tomorrow is for winter-like conditions, with highs in the 40's.
In spite of a cool northeast breeze and overcast skies, weak sunlight has pushed temperatures to a seasonable level in the mid 60's around the Washington metro area this afternoon. At the beach, the northeast wind pushed the temperature at Ocean City down from 57 this morning to 48 this afternoon. Although some light rain and drizzle continued overnight in the area, precipitation mostly ended by 7am. Regional radar is generally clear this afternoon, except for some widely scattered showers in southern West Virginia and southeastern Virginia. The weekend will be rain-free, but clouds will persist at least through Saturday, holding highs to the low 60's after a low tonight of 50.
Royal Wedding Outlook
After a recent warm spell in England, the outlook for the royal wedding tomorrow is for winter-like conditions, with highs in the 40's.
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The blossoms are peaking....how's the weather looking?
Jason Samenow @ 7:51 AM
The good news is that the weekend is going to be dry. The bad news is that we have to get through today first.We'll have some showers to start off the day, which should taper off by mid morning. After that, expect slow clearing, and with a northeasterly wind, cool temperatures. Highs will be around 60, with the sun possibly making a brief appearance late in the day.
High pressure builds in from the north on Saturday, which will allow for more sunshine than today. I still expect some puffy cumulus clouds around-- but those should make a nice backdrop for some cherry blossom photography. The Cherry Blossom parade starts at 10am, and the 44th Annual Sakura Matsuri - Japanese Street Festival runs from 11am-6pm. With a persistent northeasterly breeze, the air will be fresh and a little cool, but not uncomfortable with the high near 60.
Pretty much the same deal for Sunday, although it will be about five degrees warmer -- with the high near 65.
Pictured: Cherry Blossoms near their peak at the Tidal Basin yesterday. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
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Thursday, April 07, 2005
Late afternoon update
Steve Scolnik @ 3:45 PM
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch until 11am Friday morning.
Currently
It's not as spectacular as yesterday, but sun shining through an increasing high overcast has brought temperatures in the low to mid 70's to the Washington metro area this afternoon. Humidity has increased with dewpoints generally in the 50's and relative humidities 50-60%. Winds are brisk from the southwest, gusting as high as 30 mph. At mid-day, radar showed showers west of Roanoke in southern Virginia and some widely scattered activity in West Virginia. The southern portion of the area in Virginia strengthened and the northern portion expanded just west of the northern part of I-81 as it moved eastward into mid afternoon. By 4pm, the leading edge of showers had moved east of Charlottesville. The northern end of the rain area was just south of I-66. These showers should be moving into the southern suburbs by 5 to 6pm.
Outlook
The chance of showers in the DC area will increase tonight as a low pressure area in Kentucky and Tennessee this morning moves slowly to the Carolinas by tomorrow morning. As they have for a couple of days, however, the model forecasts are keeping the heaviest rain in North Carolina and southern Virginia. Cooler air will move in Friday, but an easterly wind will cause skies to remain mostly cloudy. Highs will be around 60. For the weekend, clouds will decrease with seasonable temperatures, highs in the mid 60's.
Currently
It's not as spectacular as yesterday, but sun shining through an increasing high overcast has brought temperatures in the low to mid 70's to the Washington metro area this afternoon. Humidity has increased with dewpoints generally in the 50's and relative humidities 50-60%. Winds are brisk from the southwest, gusting as high as 30 mph. At mid-day, radar showed showers west of Roanoke in southern Virginia and some widely scattered activity in West Virginia. The southern portion of the area in Virginia strengthened and the northern portion expanded just west of the northern part of I-81 as it moved eastward into mid afternoon. By 4pm, the leading edge of showers had moved east of Charlottesville. The northern end of the rain area was just south of I-66. These showers should be moving into the southern suburbs by 5 to 6pm.
Outlook
The chance of showers in the DC area will increase tonight as a low pressure area in Kentucky and Tennessee this morning moves slowly to the Carolinas by tomorrow morning. As they have for a couple of days, however, the model forecasts are keeping the heaviest rain in North Carolina and southern Virginia. Cooler air will move in Friday, but an easterly wind will cause skies to remain mostly cloudy. Highs will be around 60. For the weekend, clouds will decrease with seasonable temperatures, highs in the mid 60's.
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10-DAY OUTLOOK: An Active Pattern
Josh Larson @ 12:30 AM
Today's Weather:
Today weather will feature more clouds than sun, with still-mild temperatures in lower 70's in areas that see the most cloud cover to the mid 70's in areas that see more sunshine.
Some instability aloft, coupled with a low to our south, will allow for a 50/50 chance of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms are not expected to reach severe levels at this time. Scattered showers will likely linger through the evening and overnight hours, with mild overnight lows in the low to mid 50's in most locations.
10-Day Outlook:
The weather pattern over the next 10 days looks to be a rather active one, especially with a continued somewhat-energized southern jet stream -- which is not at all atypical for this time of year. The Climate Prediction Center sums this pattern up nicely:
A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN [UNITED STATES]. THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE OF A SPLIT-FLOW VARIETY WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE [UNITED STATES].
I believe precipitation over the next 10 days will average at near to slightly-above average levels, with temperatures averaging close to normal for the next 5 days and probably somewhat below normal for the following 5 days. I disagree with the CPC's call for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period, as they have highlighted in their outlook. In my mind, it is quite possible that during the middle of next week, a backdoor cold front over the Northeast may lead to a cool-air damming situation with several days of cloudy, rainy weather and below-normal temperatures. I expect that temperatures during the next 5 days will average near 66/46, with temperatures over the following 5 days closer to 58/44; the average high/low during the 10-day period is 65/45.
After today's mild weather, we'll see temperatures drop some 15° by Friday. The reason for this cool down is that high pressure now stationed over the western Atlantic will shift further offshore, allowing for a cooler air mass to press down from the Northeast Friday and Saturday. Temperatures both days will be near 60° -- certainly nothing to complain about -- but about 5 degrees below average. Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies with periodic showers, especially in the morning; it does not appear to be a washout, and the afternoon may be entirely dry. Cooler Friday night, with lows only in the low to mid 40's.
Saturday and Sunday will be quite nice, with a blend of clouds and sun both days; at this point, Sunday looks to be the sunnier of the two days. Highs Saturday will once again be near 60, with cool overnight lows near 40°. Slightly milder on Sunday, with highs right where they should be for this time of year -- near 65° -- with overnight lows in the mid 40's.
Monday and Tuesday look to offer up very nice weather for the DC area, with partly to mostly sunny skies both days and highs in the mid 60's to the lower 70's depending on the amount of sunshine that prevails. Overnight lows both nights will be in the 45-50° range for most locations.
Cooler, and potentially wet weather, looks to set in in the Wednesday through Friday period of next week, as models hint at the aforementioned cool air-damming setup, with moisture streaming in from the south. We'll call for highs during this period in the mid to upper 50's under mostly cloudy skies, with chances for scattered showers, or steadier rain possible Wednesday and Thursday, and perhaps lingering into Friday. Early indications suggest that weather should dry out, with the return of sunshine, by next weekend.
Get out and enjoy the cherry blossoms this weekend!
Both pictures, taken Wednesday, are courtesy CapitalWeather.com's photographer, Kevin Ambrose.
Today weather will feature more clouds than sun, with still-mild temperatures in lower 70's in areas that see the most cloud cover to the mid 70's in areas that see more sunshine.Some instability aloft, coupled with a low to our south, will allow for a 50/50 chance of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms are not expected to reach severe levels at this time. Scattered showers will likely linger through the evening and overnight hours, with mild overnight lows in the low to mid 50's in most locations.
10-Day Outlook:
The weather pattern over the next 10 days looks to be a rather active one, especially with a continued somewhat-energized southern jet stream -- which is not at all atypical for this time of year. The Climate Prediction Center sums this pattern up nicely:
A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN [UNITED STATES]. THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE OF A SPLIT-FLOW VARIETY WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE [UNITED STATES].
I believe precipitation over the next 10 days will average at near to slightly-above average levels, with temperatures averaging close to normal for the next 5 days and probably somewhat below normal for the following 5 days. I disagree with the CPC's call for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day period, as they have highlighted in their outlook. In my mind, it is quite possible that during the middle of next week, a backdoor cold front over the Northeast may lead to a cool-air damming situation with several days of cloudy, rainy weather and below-normal temperatures. I expect that temperatures during the next 5 days will average near 66/46, with temperatures over the following 5 days closer to 58/44; the average high/low during the 10-day period is 65/45.
After today's mild weather, we'll see temperatures drop some 15° by Friday. The reason for this cool down is that high pressure now stationed over the western Atlantic will shift further offshore, allowing for a cooler air mass to press down from the Northeast Friday and Saturday. Temperatures both days will be near 60° -- certainly nothing to complain about -- but about 5 degrees below average. Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies with periodic showers, especially in the morning; it does not appear to be a washout, and the afternoon may be entirely dry. Cooler Friday night, with lows only in the low to mid 40's.
Saturday and Sunday will be quite nice, with a blend of clouds and sun both days; at this point, Sunday looks to be the sunnier of the two days. Highs Saturday will once again be near 60, with cool overnight lows near 40°. Slightly milder on Sunday, with highs right where they should be for this time of year -- near 65° -- with overnight lows in the mid 40's.Monday and Tuesday look to offer up very nice weather for the DC area, with partly to mostly sunny skies both days and highs in the mid 60's to the lower 70's depending on the amount of sunshine that prevails. Overnight lows both nights will be in the 45-50° range for most locations.
Cooler, and potentially wet weather, looks to set in in the Wednesday through Friday period of next week, as models hint at the aforementioned cool air-damming setup, with moisture streaming in from the south. We'll call for highs during this period in the mid to upper 50's under mostly cloudy skies, with chances for scattered showers, or steadier rain possible Wednesday and Thursday, and perhaps lingering into Friday. Early indications suggest that weather should dry out, with the return of sunshine, by next weekend.
Get out and enjoy the cherry blossoms this weekend!
Both pictures, taken Wednesday, are courtesy CapitalWeather.com's photographer, Kevin Ambrose.
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Wednesday, April 06, 2005
How warm is it?
Steve Scolnik @ 3:30 PM
Currently
If you're still sitting in the office looking out the window, it's not because we didn't warn you. Forecasts of highs near 80 turned out to be a wee bit conservative, as temperatures rose 30 degrees by mid afternoon from an early morning low of 52. Temperatures in the Washington DC metro area were all above 80 at 3pm, except for Quantico, which stubbornly reported 69. Either the south wind at 16 mph was producing a mean river effect, or the site may need a calibration. A southeast breeze off the Bay was chilling Annapolis to 59. The warm spot was Leesburg VA at 88. Roughly due east of there in Montgomery County, I'm seeing a temperature of 88 as well. With the storm windows and doors still in place, that's about a 20 degree excess above the indoor temperature. Shortly before 4 pm, both Leesburg and Frederick MD reached the magic 32 Celsius (90 Fahrenheit). Let us know in the comments how warm it is where you are. (And ignore the comment count; it's being a little flaky.) Last year, the temperature was above 70 only once in the first half of April, reaching 80 for the first time on the 17th.
Outlook
A storm system now slowly working its way through the Gulf States will bring an increasing threat of showers by late tomorrow through the middle of the day Friday. After lows tonight about 60, highs tomorrow should be in the low 70's. Further cooling is on tap for Friday, with highs in the low 60's.
Mass Market Media Meteorologist Moves
The American Meteorological Society announced on Monday that Jack Williams will be joining the AMS staff as the public outreach coordinator. Williams has been the weather editor of USA Today for over 20 years since it first began publication. He has received the AMS Louis J. Battan Author's Award twice: for the "USA Today Weather Book" in 1994 and with co-author Dr. Bob Sheets in 2004 for "Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth". His first task at the AMS will be to develop a new book on weather and climate aimed at promoting scientific literacy. The Weather Grill gang sends best wishes to Jack on his new assignment; don't forget to bring your snow shovel to Boston.
If you're still sitting in the office looking out the window, it's not because we didn't warn you. Forecasts of highs near 80 turned out to be a wee bit conservative, as temperatures rose 30 degrees by mid afternoon from an early morning low of 52. Temperatures in the Washington DC metro area were all above 80 at 3pm, except for Quantico, which stubbornly reported 69. Either the south wind at 16 mph was producing a mean river effect, or the site may need a calibration. A southeast breeze off the Bay was chilling Annapolis to 59. The warm spot was Leesburg VA at 88. Roughly due east of there in Montgomery County, I'm seeing a temperature of 88 as well. With the storm windows and doors still in place, that's about a 20 degree excess above the indoor temperature. Shortly before 4 pm, both Leesburg and Frederick MD reached the magic 32 Celsius (90 Fahrenheit). Let us know in the comments how warm it is where you are. (And ignore the comment count; it's being a little flaky.) Last year, the temperature was above 70 only once in the first half of April, reaching 80 for the first time on the 17th.
Outlook
A storm system now slowly working its way through the Gulf States will bring an increasing threat of showers by late tomorrow through the middle of the day Friday. After lows tonight about 60, highs tomorrow should be in the low 70's. Further cooling is on tap for Friday, with highs in the low 60's.
Mass Market Media Meteorologist Moves
The American Meteorological Society announced on Monday that Jack Williams will be joining the AMS staff as the public outreach coordinator. Williams has been the weather editor of USA Today for over 20 years since it first began publication. He has received the AMS Louis J. Battan Author's Award twice: for the "USA Today Weather Book" in 1994 and with co-author Dr. Bob Sheets in 2004 for "Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth". His first task at the AMS will be to develop a new book on weather and climate aimed at promoting scientific literacy. The Weather Grill gang sends best wishes to Jack on his new assignment; don't forget to bring your snow shovel to Boston.
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Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Does Gorgeous Midweek Mean Soggy Weekend?
Dan Stillman @ 11:15 PM
Last week we saw a wonderful Wednesday -- sunshine and highs in the mid-60s to near 70 -- followed by a nasty, raw weekend full of rain, wind and chilly temperatures. Will the pattern repeat itself this week and weekend?
The first part definitely will. We'll probably see a few more clouds today than yesterday, but still plenty of sunshine and high temperatures climbing to near 80 degrees, possibly into the low 80s for some locations. Today is the day to hit an outdoor happy hour or two, as early-evening temps will be in the low-to-mid 70s, down to the mid-50s for an overnight low.
Things go downhill tomorrow, which will bring cooler and cloudier conditions with showers and thunderstorms possible from the early afternoon through tomorrow night. Highs in the low 70s. Mostly cloudy and in the upper 50s to near 60 on Friday. Showers could linger into the morning and afternoon, especially south and east of town. Clearing out late Friday night with lows in the 40s.
As for the weekend ... things are looking up as there are indications that high pressure will try to work its way in by Saturday. Right now let's call Saturday and Sunday partly cloudy with highs in the 60s (Saturday will likely be several degrees cooler than Sunday). That would be decent weather for blossom viewing, although not quite as nice as locals and tourists had it yesterday, even if the blossoms weren't yet in full bloom.
More Weather on TV
Turns out there's competition to attract viewers with automated, repeating weather information, as NBC has entered the market with Weather Plus, its own nonstop weather station. Weather Plus is a national network with local affiliates across the country. Both local and national weather coverage is provided. The Washington-area broadcast features forecasts from Channel 4 meteorologists.
Both channels offer a constant rotation of weather graphics, including current temperatures, Doppler radar, and of course the forecast. And both are available only on digital cable, which, sadly, a starving meteorologist like myself cannot afford 
"Doug Hill's Weather Now" can be seen on Comcast channel 225, and Weather Plus on Comcast channel 227 (Weather Plus not available in the District according to local listings).
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The Perfect Warm
Steve Scolnik @ 4:00 PM
Currently
The outdoor patio is open for the season down at the Weather Grill! It's a fine spring day in the Washington metro area, with temperatures reaching near or above 70 by mid-afternoon. Highs were at least 75 in a few locations, such as Frederick MD and Culpeper VA. Temperatures were somewhat cooler along the Atlantic and the Bay; Ocean City was only 55 at 4pm. It's also very dry; with dewpoints in the low 30's, humidities are under 30%. If you liked today, you should love tomorrow, as temperatures head toward 80. There is nothing of note on radar; the only rain east of the Mississippi on the national map is in western Wisconsin and far northern New York. There is a chance of showers late Thursday and Friday, as the next storm system, centered in Kansas, moves eastward. This afternoon's model forecast keeps the heaviest precipitation in the Gulf States and the Southeast.
Rome outlook
Here are some forecasts for the Pope's funeral Friday in Rome.
Italian Meteorological Service: Mostly cloudy, high 18 Celsius
U.K. Met Office: Cloudy, high 63.
Weather Channel: Cloudy, high 65, 20% chance of precipitation
AccuWeather: Mostly cloudy, chance of a thundershower, high 17 Celsius, 30% chance of precipitation
Solar eclipse
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center reports that there will be a rare "hybrid" solar eclipse on Friday. This means that the eclipse changes from an annular eclipse over the South Pacific to a total eclipse and then back to an annular eclipse before it reaches Central America. In North America, it will be a partial eclipse, with only about 5% coverage in the Washington DC area. In the U.S., maximum coverage will be close to 50% in southern Florida. The maximum extent of the eclipse in the Eastern Daylight time zone will be from 6:15 to 6:20 pm; in the DC area, the time of maximum will be 6:19 pm. This will be the last partial solar eclipse visible from the continental U.S. until 2012.
The outdoor patio is open for the season down at the Weather Grill! It's a fine spring day in the Washington metro area, with temperatures reaching near or above 70 by mid-afternoon. Highs were at least 75 in a few locations, such as Frederick MD and Culpeper VA. Temperatures were somewhat cooler along the Atlantic and the Bay; Ocean City was only 55 at 4pm. It's also very dry; with dewpoints in the low 30's, humidities are under 30%. If you liked today, you should love tomorrow, as temperatures head toward 80. There is nothing of note on radar; the only rain east of the Mississippi on the national map is in western Wisconsin and far northern New York. There is a chance of showers late Thursday and Friday, as the next storm system, centered in Kansas, moves eastward. This afternoon's model forecast keeps the heaviest precipitation in the Gulf States and the Southeast.
Rome outlook
Here are some forecasts for the Pope's funeral Friday in Rome.
Italian Meteorological Service: Mostly cloudy, high 18 Celsius
U.K. Met Office: Cloudy, high 63.
Weather Channel: Cloudy, high 65, 20% chance of precipitation
AccuWeather: Mostly cloudy, chance of a thundershower, high 17 Celsius, 30% chance of precipitation
Solar eclipse
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center reports that there will be a rare "hybrid" solar eclipse on Friday. This means that the eclipse changes from an annular eclipse over the South Pacific to a total eclipse and then back to an annular eclipse before it reaches Central America. In North America, it will be a partial eclipse, with only about 5% coverage in the Washington DC area. In the U.S., maximum coverage will be close to 50% in southern Florida. The maximum extent of the eclipse in the Eastern Daylight time zone will be from 6:15 to 6:20 pm; in the DC area, the time of maximum will be 6:19 pm. This will be the last partial solar eclipse visible from the continental U.S. until 2012.
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Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall
Matt Ross @ 12:00 AM
Forecast
I have nothing to add to the recent forecast ideas of Jason and Steve other than to reiterate the uncertainty with the amount of rain we will receive Thursday through Saturday. So, enjoy Wednesday and the possibility that we may hit 80 degrees for the 1st time this year. Suffice it to say, we will easily surpass 80 degrees many times this year when we least want it.
Snow in April?
This past weekend's heavy wet snowfall in parts of Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania inspired me to look back at April snows in DC(or lack thereof), and indeed they are quite rare. Since National Airport(DCA) began official measurements in the winter of 1941-42, DCA has received a total of 1.3" of measurable April snow. On the other hand, Dulles Aiport(IAD), 25 miles to the west, has received 12.4" of measurable snow since they began measuring there in the winter of 1962-63. The last sizeable April snowfall at IAD was April 9, 1996 when 2.6" fell to further cement the 1995-96 winter as the biggest of all time at 61.9". There are no indications that we will see a repeat this year.
Summer Analogs
Many of the long term summer outlooks, such as the one from Keith Allen I referred to in last week's post, use analogs, or past years' weather as an indication of future weather. Keith Allen's primary analogs for this upcoming summer were 1957 and 1975. From my own research, I believe some other years that deserve mention are 1914, 1928, 1966, 1969, and 1978. Generally speaking a common theme among these five years was a weakening el-nino coming out of the previous winter combined with similar temperature profiles over the previous fall and winter, particularly in November and December. Of course, no two years are alike, but it will be interesting to see how this summer matches up with some previous DC summers.
Pictured above: Wayne, NJ this past weekend. A State of Emergency was called by the New Jersey Governor due to severe flooding.
I have nothing to add to the recent forecast ideas of Jason and Steve other than to reiterate the uncertainty with the amount of rain we will receive Thursday through Saturday. So, enjoy Wednesday and the possibility that we may hit 80 degrees for the 1st time this year. Suffice it to say, we will easily surpass 80 degrees many times this year when we least want it.
Snow in April?
This past weekend's heavy wet snowfall in parts of Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania inspired me to look back at April snows in DC(or lack thereof), and indeed they are quite rare. Since National Airport(DCA) began official measurements in the winter of 1941-42, DCA has received a total of 1.3" of measurable April snow. On the other hand, Dulles Aiport(IAD), 25 miles to the west, has received 12.4" of measurable snow since they began measuring there in the winter of 1962-63. The last sizeable April snowfall at IAD was April 9, 1996 when 2.6" fell to further cement the 1995-96 winter as the biggest of all time at 61.9". There are no indications that we will see a repeat this year.
Summer Analogs
Many of the long term summer outlooks, such as the one from Keith Allen I referred to in last week's post, use analogs, or past years' weather as an indication of future weather. Keith Allen's primary analogs for this upcoming summer were 1957 and 1975. From my own research, I believe some other years that deserve mention are 1914, 1928, 1966, 1969, and 1978. Generally speaking a common theme among these five years was a weakening el-nino coming out of the previous winter combined with similar temperature profiles over the previous fall and winter, particularly in November and December. Of course, no two years are alike, but it will be interesting to see how this summer matches up with some previous DC summers.
Pictured above: Wayne, NJ this past weekend. A State of Emergency was called by the New Jersey Governor due to severe flooding.
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Monday, April 04, 2005
Back to our regularly scheduled season
Steve Scolnik @ 4:20 PM
Currently
Temperatures this afternoon are mostly 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. For a while yesterday, Washington was rivaling central Maine in temperature. (At 8am, for example, Washington National at 44 was 2 degrees colder than Lewiston, Maine. At 1pm, DC was just 2 degrees warmer than Lewiston.) Yesterday's high of 53 was not reached until 10pm. Despite brisk breezes as the low-pressure area which caused all the weekend commotion spins down just north of New England, today's late-afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid 60's. There are even a few reports of upper 60's under brilliantly sunny skies.
Look for a warming trend through mid-week, with the next chance of rain Thursday or Friday. Mid or even upper 70's are not out of the question for Wednesday, so make those "I forgot to come back to work after lunch" plans NOW. See Jason's post below for the details.
Despite some skepticism about the incredibly huge amounts of rain being forecast by the models for this weekend's storm, some really amazing results did occur. The Weather Channel reported that West Shokan, in New York's Catskills region, received 5.68" of rain. In Pennsylvania, the Poconos received 5" at Tobyhanna and 4.87" at Mt. Pocono. There has been widespread flooding along the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers and other areas of the Northeast. In some locations, the Delaware River crested over 10 feet above flood stage.
Hurricane outlook
With less than 60 days to go until the official start of the season, hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray has issued an updated outlook for this year's storm activity. The outlook calls for above-average tropical storm activity and above-average probability of U.S. landfall by major hurricanes. The forecast includes 13 named storms, of which 7 are expected to be hurricanes. These figures are compared to 1950-2000 averages of 9.6 and 5.9, respectively. The probability of at least one major (category 3 or higher) storm landfall on the East Coast is given as 53%, compared to the average for the last century of 31%. These figures are increased from the level of activity predicted in the early December forecast.
Blog watch
Somehow we missed this in all the fun on Friday, but the realclimate blog had a post on the change of seasons expressing doubt on the beginning of spring. Realclimate is "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists."
Temperatures this afternoon are mostly 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. For a while yesterday, Washington was rivaling central Maine in temperature. (At 8am, for example, Washington National at 44 was 2 degrees colder than Lewiston, Maine. At 1pm, DC was just 2 degrees warmer than Lewiston.) Yesterday's high of 53 was not reached until 10pm. Despite brisk breezes as the low-pressure area which caused all the weekend commotion spins down just north of New England, today's late-afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid 60's. There are even a few reports of upper 60's under brilliantly sunny skies.
Look for a warming trend through mid-week, with the next chance of rain Thursday or Friday. Mid or even upper 70's are not out of the question for Wednesday, so make those "I forgot to come back to work after lunch" plans NOW. See Jason's post below for the details.
Despite some skepticism about the incredibly huge amounts of rain being forecast by the models for this weekend's storm, some really amazing results did occur. The Weather Channel reported that West Shokan, in New York's Catskills region, received 5.68" of rain. In Pennsylvania, the Poconos received 5" at Tobyhanna and 4.87" at Mt. Pocono. There has been widespread flooding along the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers and other areas of the Northeast. In some locations, the Delaware River crested over 10 feet above flood stage.
Hurricane outlook
With less than 60 days to go until the official start of the season, hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray has issued an updated outlook for this year's storm activity. The outlook calls for above-average tropical storm activity and above-average probability of U.S. landfall by major hurricanes. The forecast includes 13 named storms, of which 7 are expected to be hurricanes. These figures are compared to 1950-2000 averages of 9.6 and 5.9, respectively. The probability of at least one major (category 3 or higher) storm landfall on the East Coast is given as 53%, compared to the average for the last century of 31%. These figures are increased from the level of activity predicted in the early December forecast.
Blog watch
Somehow we missed this in all the fun on Friday, but the realclimate blog had a post on the change of seasons expressing doubt on the beginning of spring. Realclimate is "a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists."
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Sunday, April 03, 2005
Calming down after the storm
Jason Samenow @ 11:10 PM
What a weekend. From record rains to ferocious wind, it wasn't pretty. The upshot is rapidly improving conditions starting with today.Recapping the storm
All three major airports set rainfall records on Saturday. Reagan National (DCA) recorded 1.79", Dulles (IAD) got 2.07" and BWI received 1.63". Most portions of the DC area received 2-3" of rain from the whole storm (counting Friday). Flooding was reported in a number of areas.
Yesterday's story was the wind. All three airports clocked gusts in excess of 40 mph (41, 43, and 48 mph at DCA, IAD and BWI respectively). The wind essentially ruined the Kite Festival, according to this Washington Post article.
In the mountains of northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia, 50+ mph wind gusts were common, with one location in Mineral County, WV recording a gust to 64mph. Damage reports were common in these counties. Many of these mountainous areas also got snow Saturday night and Sunday, with 1-3" reported.
The National Weather Service Office in Sterling has a nice summary of storm information in this report.
The Week Ahead
Sunshine returns today, although it will still be on the breezy side and the morning will be chilly (35-40). High temperatures should be between 60-65.
On Tuesday, the winds slacken and temperatures edge warmer with highs near 70 under partly cloudy skies.
Wednesday should be phenomenal. Winds will turn southerly, and finally we'll have a bit of a summer time flow pattern. Look for highs 75-80. That is not a misprint.
Mild conditions should continue on Thursday, although a front will approach, bringing the possibility of showers in the afternoon. High temps should be near 70.
Beyond Thursday, the forecast turns a bit uncertain as some guidance suggests the front may slowdown and/or stall out for Friday and Saturday, which could cause rain to linger into the early part of the weekend. Figures (we can't buy a nice weekend so far this spring). Sunday, while a long way off, looks good.
Winter forecast contest
Congratulations to Jonathan Lubetsky, winner of CapitalWeather.com's winter snowfall prediction contest. He called for 13.25 inches of snow at DCA whereas 12.5" of snow officially fell (narrowly beating entrant John Martin, who called for 13.5"). Accordingly, he gets a Midland All Hazards Weather Radio.
Stay tuned, we're going to announce a new contest for the summer in the next couple of weeks.
Pictured: The Potomac overflows its banks at Great Falls on Sunday. By CapitalWeather.com photographer Kevin Ambrose.
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Blustery Sunday
Jason Samenow @ 12:00 AM
Wind. That's today's weather story. West to northwesterly winds between 20-30 mph, with 40+ gusts are possible. Accordingly, the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory through 8pm tonight. Text from the advisory:BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MILES PER HOUR.The culprit for the windy conditions is a powerful low pressure system that brought flooding rains to portions of the area yesterday and forced the cancellation of outdoor events. In my post yesterday, I mentioned three events happening today -- the 10 mile race, the Washington Nationals exhibition game and the Kite Festival. The Kite Festival should be a spectacle with 40mph+ winds.
BE SURE TO SECURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING DUE TO THE DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS.
Aside from the winds, it will be mostly cloudy (with peaks of sun in the afternoon) and chilly today with highs in the low 50s. Can't even rule out a stray shower or two -- especially early in the morning and late in the afternoon. By the evening, skies should begin to clear.
Image (top right) courtesy Weather.com. Notice that the isobars (lines of equal pressure) on the weather map are close together -- indicative of strong winds.
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