Saturday, October 27, 2007
Clearing and Seasonable; Excellent Marathon Conditions
Matt Ross @ 1:00 AM
Dry and seasonable conditions are on tap for the rest of the weekend including the Marine Corps Marathon on Sunday (see more at the bottom). Nevertheless this rain event was much needed. Through 4am this morning, National Airport (DCA) was up to 5.05" of rain since early Wednesday morning. This brings DCA to over 80% of normal precipitation year to date, putting a huge dent in the drought conditions.
Showers Early, Sunny Late. After some lingering morning showers (60%), the sun should make an appearance by the end of the afternoon. Highs will be near 70 degrees with a stiff westerly breeze at 10-15 mph. Tonight we will see further clearing with lows dipping to 45-50 degrees.
Sunny, Breezy, Temperate. Sunday will be mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 60s withe breezy conditions persisting.
A crisp northerly flow will usher in a cool fall regime this weekend. Image courtesy of Accuweather.
The 32nd annual Marine Corps Marathon will take place tomorrow. Look for partly sunny conditions at the onset of the race with temperatures in the low 50s. During the race, expect temperatures to rise through the 50s and into the low 60s with a refreshing breeze. Best of luck to all the participants!
Today and Tonight
Showers Early, Sunny Late. After some lingering morning showers (60%), the sun should make an appearance by the end of the afternoon. Highs will be near 70 degrees with a stiff westerly breeze at 10-15 mph. Tonight we will see further clearing with lows dipping to 45-50 degrees.Sunday
Sunny, Breezy, Temperate. Sunday will be mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 60s withe breezy conditions persisting.A crisp northerly flow will usher in a cool fall regime this weekend. Image courtesy of Accuweather.
Marine Corps Marathon
The 32nd annual Marine Corps Marathon will take place tomorrow. Look for partly sunny conditions at the onset of the race with temperatures in the low 50s. During the race, expect temperatures to rise through the 50s and into the low 60s with a refreshing breeze. Best of luck to all the participants!
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Friday, October 26, 2007
Flood Watch Through Saturday Morning
Steve Scolnik @ 4:45 PM
Now
5:30 Update: Totals through 5:00: National 3.38", Dulles 2.23", BWI 2.03". The amount at National is more than the average total for the entire month of October.
Rain, moderate to heavy at times. The flood watch for West Virginia and western portions of Virginia was cancelled at mid afternoon, but the watch remains in effect for DC and adjacent Maryland and Virginia through Saturday morning. Additional rainfall of 1-3" is possible with some urban flooding or flash flooding from thunderstorms.Although not as heavy as Wednesday evening, the rainfall rate has picked up today following the drizzle and light rain on Thursday. Storm totals through early this afternoon included: National 2.61", Dulles 2.1", and BWI 1.75". Radar shows a steady stream of showers extending as far back as the Carolinas. This is all moving generally northward, although the heaviest showers were concentrated east of I-95, headed toward the eastern areas of Virginia and Maryland which received lighter amounts through yesterday. The whole area of rain will be shifting very gradually eastward, and precipitation should be tapering off in the immediate metro area by about 8am Saturday.
Temperatures tonight should remain near steady, around 60° to the lower 60s.
CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose
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Dreariness is Price for Drought Relief
Weekend to reward us with a sunny conclusion
A. Camden Walker @ 11:49 AM
** Flood Watch in Effect Through Saturday Morning **
We are getting luckier and luckier with rain totals. More rain is on its way--more than was expected even 48 hours ago--from this stationary front and low pressure system logjammed in our region. We need it though. Looking for a light at the end of our cool 'n clammy tunnel? Sunday should be at least partly sunny, albeit breezy, with highs near average.
Very Soggy, Steady Temps. Chances are good for some moderate, perhaps heavy, rain this afternoon. More drought-denting! Overcast skies will keep temperatures in a narrow range mostly in the upper 50s to 62F in the "warmer" spots. Breezes will be detectable, but it will not feel too chilly because of the compensatory humidity in the air. Dewpoints could rise near 60F, providing a palpable stickiness.
Overnight, skies will remain draped in clouds. Temperatures will fall little and dip only as cold as 60. Breezes will slacken, generally, except if a heavy burst of rain passes by. Generally a monotonous drizzle will persist outside of the periodic steady rain.
A Thursday morning pedestrian crossing over the double-yellow. [WashingtonPost.com credit Bill O'leary - Twp]
Breaking Skies by Sunset? Afternoon temperatures may reach the lower 70s under partly sunny skies! But how much we warm up, and see cracks of blue sky, will depend on how far from our area the stationary front can FINALLY move. Before it completely departs the area it will give us one more period of light rain in the morning, but not all too heavy. Winds could likely pick up, as skies clear near sunset. And mugginess will be slow to wane.
Overnight, temperatures will be allowed to fall somewhat. Inside the Beltway look for sunrise temperatures at or just above 50. Slightly cooler in the suburbs of course. Skies will finally clear out by dawn. And winds will likely pickup too.
Crisp, Blue, Beautiful! Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with accompanying autumnal (but average) temperatures in the lower-60s. It will probably be breezy behind the finally-cleared front. Enjoy the dryer air being ushered in out of the northwest. Gear up for a cool time of it after sunset, too. We get a nice reward at the end of our much-appreciated dreary weather!
In an interesting move directly related to tangible results from climate change, the U.S. Coast Guard has decided to step up operations on the Arctic Ocean. The Bush Administration is hurriedly encouraging ratification of a 1982 U.N. treaty, delineating nations' claims on sovereign seas overtop their continental shelves.
It is interesting watching our U.S. government play catch-up to this new, increasingly accessible waterway thanks to melting ice--after perhaps years of denial that any warming was even occurring. Oh yeah, and Russia seems to have a flag planted by submarine underneath the North Pole. And the same country has already begun pouring concrete into new ports on its northern coast. I hope to have a summer villa in Rusmarkanada one day...
We are getting luckier and luckier with rain totals. More rain is on its way--more than was expected even 48 hours ago--from this stationary front and low pressure system logjammed in our region. We need it though. Looking for a light at the end of our cool 'n clammy tunnel? Sunday should be at least partly sunny, albeit breezy, with highs near average.
Today
Very Soggy, Steady Temps. Chances are good for some moderate, perhaps heavy, rain this afternoon. More drought-denting! Overcast skies will keep temperatures in a narrow range mostly in the upper 50s to 62F in the "warmer" spots. Breezes will be detectable, but it will not feel too chilly because of the compensatory humidity in the air. Dewpoints could rise near 60F, providing a palpable stickiness.Overnight, skies will remain draped in clouds. Temperatures will fall little and dip only as cold as 60. Breezes will slacken, generally, except if a heavy burst of rain passes by. Generally a monotonous drizzle will persist outside of the periodic steady rain.
Jaywalking in a Damp Downtown DC
A Thursday morning pedestrian crossing over the double-yellow. [WashingtonPost.com credit Bill O'leary - Twp]
Saturday
Breaking Skies by Sunset? Afternoon temperatures may reach the lower 70s under partly sunny skies! But how much we warm up, and see cracks of blue sky, will depend on how far from our area the stationary front can FINALLY move. Before it completely departs the area it will give us one more period of light rain in the morning, but not all too heavy. Winds could likely pick up, as skies clear near sunset. And mugginess will be slow to wane.Overnight, temperatures will be allowed to fall somewhat. Inside the Beltway look for sunrise temperatures at or just above 50. Slightly cooler in the suburbs of course. Skies will finally clear out by dawn. And winds will likely pickup too.
Sunday
Crisp, Blue, Beautiful! Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with accompanying autumnal (but average) temperatures in the lower-60s. It will probably be breezy behind the finally-cleared front. Enjoy the dryer air being ushered in out of the northwest. Gear up for a cool time of it after sunset, too. We get a nice reward at the end of our much-appreciated dreary weather!The Arctic Scramble
In an interesting move directly related to tangible results from climate change, the U.S. Coast Guard has decided to step up operations on the Arctic Ocean. The Bush Administration is hurriedly encouraging ratification of a 1982 U.N. treaty, delineating nations' claims on sovereign seas overtop their continental shelves.
It is interesting watching our U.S. government play catch-up to this new, increasingly accessible waterway thanks to melting ice--after perhaps years of denial that any warming was even occurring. Oh yeah, and Russia seems to have a flag planted by submarine underneath the North Pole. And the same country has already begun pouring concrete into new ports on its northern coast. I hope to have a summer villa in Rusmarkanada one day...
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Thursday, October 25, 2007
Who You Gonna Call? Drought Denters!
Steve Scolnik @ 5:00 PM
Now
Light rain, drizzle, cool. The rain of as much as 2"+ at National may not have busted the drought, but it certainly put a large dent in it. After last night's more drenching showers, today's activity has been more of the light drizzle/heavy mist variety. At mid afternoon, most precipitation heavy enough to show up on radar was south of a line from Charlottesville to Richmond, but there's a better chance for more significant rain tomorrow.As high pressure to the north has enhanced northerly flow into the area, temperatures are much cooler than we've been used to this month; the high so far is the midnight temperature of only 57°, giving a chance for the first below-average day in over a month.
CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose
Tonight and Tomorrow
Showers or rain likely, cool. Conditions will remain cloudy and damp overnight with a 90% chance of showers and lows in the low to mid 50s. Rain is likely tomorrow with highs 58-62°.For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.
Volunteer Opportunity
The Union of Concerned Scientists is looking for volunteers to help with PowerShift 2007, the first national youth summit on global warming, to be held November 2-5 at the University of Maryland.
Political Science: Who You Gonna Call? Ghost Writers!
Today's WaPo reports that those cunning linguists in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy have apparently stopped tinkering with the wording of government climate change reports---they simply deleted over 6 complete pages from the testimony of CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding on climate change and public health. In addition to the Senate investigation cited in the article, the House Committee on Science and Technology is also looking into the matter. Chairman Miller of the Oversight Subcommittee said, "My advice to any administration witness is if you're convicted of contempt of Congress, obstruction of justice or perjury, [White House Science Advisor] Dr. Marburger will not serve your sentence for you."
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Clouds & Rain Continue Through Saturday
Total Rainfall Amounts of 2-4" Are Likely
Josh Larson @ 12:50 PM
After what's felt like an eternity of severe drought conditions, several factors are finally lining up to bring the potential for several inches of drought-busting rain over the next 60 hours. A nearly stationary front and associated area of low pressure will keep thick clouds and showers in our forecast until late Saturday. The sun, along with drier conditions, however, will re-emerge on Sunday.Pictured: CapitalWeather.com visitor PJ Dunn took this shot of the sun rising over Potomac Yard on Tuesday; it will not be until Sunday when we see another sunrise.
Today
Cloudy & showers. Thick overcast skies, noticeably cooler temperatures than yesterday, periodic showers, and possibly a few periods of heavier rain will team up to provide somewhat raw-feeling conditions today. Expect high temperatures in the upper 50s amidst breezy NE winds. Lingering periods of rain overnight, with nearly-steady lows in the mid 50s.Better potential for steadier and heavier rain. Thick overcast skies along with periodic showers and heavier periods of rain will color the day Friday, though you can expect high temperatures a notch warmer in the low to mid 60s. Showers and potentially heavy rain will continue Friday night, with overnight lows near 60. Wet Saturday; Dry Sunday. Expect overcast skies and milder conditions on Saturday along with scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Highs will be near 70, with a little late-afternoon partial clearing possible. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 50s. We'll see a return of partly to mostly sunny skies on Sunday, with cooler afternoon highs back into the mid 60s. Clear and noticeably cooler Sunday night, with lows in the low to mid 40s.Marine Corps Marathon
Weather for Sunday's Marine Corps Marathon looks quite nice as the next few days' moisture will have cleared the area by Sunday morning. I expect partly sunny and breezy conditions (NW winds ~10mph) at the start time of 8am, with temperatures in the upper 50s; expect mostly sunny and pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s for the Awards Ceremony at 12:30pm.Pattern Overview
A closed-off upper-level low over the southeastern US combined with a nearly-stationary frontal system and associated area of low pressure will interact to produce the likelihood of 1-3" of drought-easing rains over the next 3 days. Though we won't see the sun again until late Saturday, if not Sunday morning, I think it's a fair price to pay for these very beneficial rains. After a cold front pushes through on Saturday, we'll see cooler weather on Sunday and seasonably cool weather for Monday. All indications are that the remainder of the work week will feature largely dry weather along with ample sunshine and near-normal temperatures.Pictured: the GFS forecast model shows an upper-level low cut off from the main flow pattern today over the SE US; this is a great setup for several days of beneficial rains.
Next week's forecast
Forecast highs/lows: 61/45 (normal = 63/44)
Forecast precip: Near-normal?
Look for mostly sunny and seasonably cool temperatures on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 and chilly overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. The forecast for Tuesday and Halloween Wednesday calls for continued mostly sunny and dry weather with highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From this far vantage point, the outlook for Thursday and Friday calls for continued fair and dry weather with highs from the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
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Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Hard Rain Gonna Fall, or a Hardly Raining Fall?
Steve Scolnik @ 5:05 PM
Now
Cloudy, intermittent showers The nearly quarter inch of rain which fell overnight was enough to push the Washington September-October total to date beyond the record driest amount in 1930. (Even though we're still technically in the running, the 1930 3-month fall total of 1.83", just 18% of normal, will be tough to beat.) The rain was also sufficient to create significant traffic disruption in the morning rush hour. Although some heavier showers and thunderstorms brought about half an inch to Richmond earlier, these storms veered to the east as they moved northward, and much of the metro area has received only several hundredths of an inch during the day. The clouds and rain are resulting from a frontal system and surface low pressure associated with an upper-level area of low pressure. The upper-level low has been cut off from the main west-to-east steering winds in the upper atmosphere, and is stalled over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys. With the weather system nearly stationary or even moving slightly westward, conditions will be slow to clear out over the next couple of days.
Map of surface pressure (solid lines) and 500 mb height (color shading) this morning from Unisys
Tonight and Tomorrow
Mostly cloudy, cool, showers. Cloudy and damp conditions will continue overnight with showers likely. Lows will be generally in the mid 50s. Tomorrow will be cloudy and cool with a 70% chance of showers and highs 55-61°.For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.
Climate Corner
Weather Channel senior meteorologist Buzz Bernard had an excellent post last week on the difference between climate science and climate policy. PM Update endorses his invitation to provide "some peer-reviewed scientific work that addresses 'other causes'" of global warming. (No, news reports of a retired professor's rants are not "peer-reviewed", no matter how prominently they were featured on the Drudge Report or squawk radio.)
Political Science
Speaking of policy (notice this is a separate section from the one above), a more careful review of the links in yesterday's Update indicates that the Warner-Lieberman climate bill hasn't been totally "endorsed" by anybody (except perhaps the WaPo in their Monday editorial). The Union of Concerned Scientists also regards the bill as a "good starting point for debate".
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Lingering Cold Front to Drape District
Significant showers, constant cloudcover as front stalls
A. Camden Walker @ 10:30 AM
Warmth may slowly wane this week as a slow-moving cold front produces overcast and sometimes showery conditions. Unfortunately, the complex nature of the front, and model uncertainty as to where exactly it will stall, cause the late-week forecast to be a low confidence one. The good news is that, at long last, soaking rain is a good bet later today and tonight.
Clouds, Humidity, Showers. Overcast skies won't allow temperatures to crack much above the low 70s at best. It'll be breezy at times with rain chances increasing throughout the afternoon and especially high in the evening time. Drive carefully during evening rush. There could be a heavy burst of rain.
Overnight, skies will continue to be overcast. Temperatures will hover in the low 50s as winds thoroughly mix the atmosphere (producing fairly uniform temperatures from suburbs to city). Another batch of rain could move through before morning.
Dreary, drizzly. Overcast and drizzling rain at times really could be the name of the game. Basically the front is stalling in our area, and we'll be juuuuust on the cooler side of it. Thus leaving us in damp mid-50s to about 60 degree temperatures. Break out the light rain slickers. It is still going to be breezy, too.
Overnight, conditions will still be a tad raw. Temperatures will stay nearly stationary in the 50s and showers will persist and could re-develop again (en masse) near dawn. We just can't shake this overcast, windy stationary frontal-mess.
Slight improvement. Skies may see some breaks by afternoon, allowing temperatures up into the 60s. Hopefully with a bit more sun, 70 degrees will be possible. However, sun or not, there may be more evening rushtime showers to develop.
Fingers crossed for Sunday? Soupy mess of clouds and showers may very well continue through Saturday morning and overcast skies again limit high temperatures. Morning temps from the middle 60s may hit the lower-70s. Sunday stands to show us some sunshine and high temperatures near average... in the 60s.
Hopefully we will have netted some short-term drought relief from our periodic showers and occasional storm. We shall see.
A lot has been written in the press about the massive 950,000-person evacuation from the southern California coast. With the Santa Ana winds providing such warm, gale-force energy to enable the fires to jump over 10-lane highways, I thought CapitalWeather.com should certainly mention this meteorological event of great societal impact. Our thoughts are with those on the West Coast.
Picture from Doha Qatar Gulf Times: Malibu Presbyterian Church smolders as high winds continue to push a wildfire.
Today
Clouds, Humidity, Showers. Overcast skies won't allow temperatures to crack much above the low 70s at best. It'll be breezy at times with rain chances increasing throughout the afternoon and especially high in the evening time. Drive carefully during evening rush. There could be a heavy burst of rain.Overnight, skies will continue to be overcast. Temperatures will hover in the low 50s as winds thoroughly mix the atmosphere (producing fairly uniform temperatures from suburbs to city). Another batch of rain could move through before morning.
Thursday
Dreary, drizzly. Overcast and drizzling rain at times really could be the name of the game. Basically the front is stalling in our area, and we'll be juuuuust on the cooler side of it. Thus leaving us in damp mid-50s to about 60 degree temperatures. Break out the light rain slickers. It is still going to be breezy, too.Overnight, conditions will still be a tad raw. Temperatures will stay nearly stationary in the 50s and showers will persist and could re-develop again (en masse) near dawn. We just can't shake this overcast, windy stationary frontal-mess.
Slight improvement. Skies may see some breaks by afternoon, allowing temperatures up into the 60s. Hopefully with a bit more sun, 70 degrees will be possible. However, sun or not, there may be more evening rushtime showers to develop.The Weekend
Fingers crossed for Sunday? Soupy mess of clouds and showers may very well continue through Saturday morning and overcast skies again limit high temperatures. Morning temps from the middle 60s may hit the lower-70s. Sunday stands to show us some sunshine and high temperatures near average... in the 60s. Hopefully we will have netted some short-term drought relief from our periodic showers and occasional storm. We shall see.
California Fires
A lot has been written in the press about the massive 950,000-person evacuation from the southern California coast. With the Santa Ana winds providing such warm, gale-force energy to enable the fires to jump over 10-lane highways, I thought CapitalWeather.com should certainly mention this meteorological event of great societal impact. Our thoughts are with those on the West Coast.
Picture from Doha Qatar Gulf Times: Malibu Presbyterian Church smolders as high winds continue to push a wildfire.
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Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Here Comes the Sun? Not Yet
Shower chances shift to tonight and tomorrow
Steve Scolnik @ 4:45 PM
Now
Cloudy, very warm, humid. Brisk southerly breezes have pushed temperatures to 80 or above for the 15th time this month, despite persistent overcast skies. By 4pm, National was 81°, although Dulles was only 79°. Dewpoints are in the noticeably humid range of the low 60s. In the much-sought precipitation department, radar shows only the most isolated activity east of the mountains. Fortunately, some areas of the Southeast which need the precipitation even more than we do have been getting some pretty good rainfall amounts.The surface weather map at 4:09 this afternoon from The Weather Channel shows precipitation bypassing the Mid Atlantic region to the north and west.
Tonight and Tomorrow
Mostly cloudy, warm, chance of showers. Tonight will be mostly cloudy and humid with a 40% chance of showers, mainly after 8 p.m., and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Mostly cloudy skies will continue through tomorrow with a 40% chance of showers and highs 68-74°. For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.
Climate Corner
A tip of the rabbit ears to the Professor for a pointer to a new paper appearing this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The to-be-published results have some bad news on the efficiency of CO2 removal from the atmosphere:
This study finds that the recent swift increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to faster economic growth coupled with a halt in carbon intensity reductions, in addition to natural sinks removing a smaller proportion of emissions from the air. Efficiency of natural sinks to remove emissions from human activities has been declining for 50 years.
Mediarology
The PBS NOVA science series is reviewing solar energy tonight in an episode entitled, Saved by the Sun (originally broadcast on April 24). Showtime is 8pm on WETA 26 and WMPT 22.
Political Science
The Hill Heat blog has a review of the Warner-Lieberman climate legislation and a comparison with competing proposals. The bill known as the America's Climate Security Act has been endorsed by the National Environmental Trust as well as the utility company PG&E.
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Can Cold Front Make Dent in Drought, Warmth?
Matt Ross @ 10:45 AM
The cold front due to arrive late today could give us some much-needed rain, but how much is a big question mark. It now looks like the front could linger longer than originally expected, giving us a chance of showers into tomorrow. Through midweek, temperatures while cooler, will still be above normal. Whether we achieve the warmest October on record (since 1871) is no longer a question of if, but by how much. Currently we are running 9.9 degrees above normal for the month. Our warmest October on record (1984) finished 6.4 degrees above normal.
Warm, Chance of Showers. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. A cold front approaching from the west will lose a lot of its punch as it enters the drought conditions of Metro DC, but should still spawn some light/moderate showers (50% chance) late this afternoon and evening, especially to the west. Locally some may receive up to .50" of rain, but probably not the drought buster we need. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 70s. Overnight a continuing 50% chance of showers with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Image to the right shows nice color in Glover Park on Sunday, courtesy of CapitalWeather.com Photographer, Ian Livingston.
Lingering clouds, showers? While before the thinking was that the front would clear the area and Wednesday would bring gradual clearing, it now seems the front may stall out and give us considerable clouds along with the possibility of more showers tomorrow. Highs should be seasonably warm near 70 degrees. Refer to Dan's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend.
*Through yesterday, October is averaging 2.5 degrees warmer than last September.
*October could average 10 degrees below normal from today through the 31st and would still finish in the top 10 warmest on record.
*Through today we will have 21 70 degree days so far this month, only 2 days away from tying the record of 23 set in October 1947.
*October 2007 will not crack the list of ten coldest Septembers on record. September averages 12 degrees warmer than October.
While we sit on the northeastern fringes of the current drought, the Tennessee Valley has been ground zero. The governor of Georgia declared a state of emergency on Saturday as Atlanta is running 17" below normal precipitation year to date. Lake Lanier which supplies water to most of metro Atlanta, is less than 3 months away from complete depletion, and there is no backup plan in place. Restrictions on outdoor watering, water in restaurants and shower length already in place may have to be expanded.
Today and Tonight
Warm, Chance of Showers. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. A cold front approaching from the west will lose a lot of its punch as it enters the drought conditions of Metro DC, but should still spawn some light/moderate showers (50% chance) late this afternoon and evening, especially to the west. Locally some may receive up to .50" of rain, but probably not the drought buster we need. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 70s. Overnight a continuing 50% chance of showers with lows in the low to mid 60s. Image to the right shows nice color in Glover Park on Sunday, courtesy of CapitalWeather.com Photographer, Ian Livingston.
Tomorrow
Lingering clouds, showers? While before the thinking was that the front would clear the area and Wednesday would bring gradual clearing, it now seems the front may stall out and give us considerable clouds along with the possibility of more showers tomorrow. Highs should be seasonably warm near 70 degrees. Refer to Dan's forecast for the rest of the week and weekend. 
October Miscellany
*Through yesterday, October is averaging 2.5 degrees warmer than last September.
*October could average 10 degrees below normal from today through the 31st and would still finish in the top 10 warmest on record.
*Through today we will have 21 70 degree days so far this month, only 2 days away from tying the record of 23 set in October 1947.
*October 2007 will not crack the list of ten coldest Septembers on record. September averages 12 degrees warmer than October.
Atlanta Drought
While we sit on the northeastern fringes of the current drought, the Tennessee Valley has been ground zero. The governor of Georgia declared a state of emergency on Saturday as Atlanta is running 17" below normal precipitation year to date. Lake Lanier which supplies water to most of metro Atlanta, is less than 3 months away from complete depletion, and there is no backup plan in place. Restrictions on outdoor watering, water in restaurants and shower length already in place may have to be expanded.
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Monday, October 22, 2007
Lake Wobegon Autumn Continues
Warm streak at day 32
Steve Scolnik @ 4:55 PM
Now
Sunny, very warm. Washington's Lake Wobegon string of consecutive days with average temperatures at or above normal reached day 32 as readings once again broke 80° early this afternoon. With only 9 days left in the month, this October is now averaging 9.7° above average. By comparison, the warmest October in history (1984) was 5.5° above average. Humidities have also crept up a bit with dewpoints mostly in the low to mid 50s.
After a good chance for the proverbially much-needed rain tomorrow, more seasonable temperatures will return for midweek.
Tonight and Tomorrow
Increasing clouds, warm, chance of showers. With clouds increasing overnight, lows will have a hard time breaking below the summery low 60s in the city and the upper 50s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon or evening; highs will be 73-77° with summery humidity. For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.
Climate Corner
Today's weekly science three-quarter page in the WaPo (A10 for the dead-tree fans) has a review of recent news on polar icecap melting, "At the Poles, Melting Occurring at Alarming Rate". Although the article doesn't mention the specific amount, NASA has reported that this year's minimum Arctic sea ice extent on September 14, shown in the image (Siberia is to the lower left, Alaska and Canada are to the right), was 25% less than the previous record low in 2005. The author of the WaPo article was online this morning for a chat on the topic.Mediarology
Today's Kojo Nnamdi Show on WAMU-FM featured a discussion on "Scientists vs. Politicians in Public Policy", and the Diane Rehm Show had a review of the current drought situation with an engineering professor from UMD, a climatologist from the National Drought Mitigation Center, and a meteorologist from the National Climatic Data Center. Podcasts are available online.
Political Science
An editorial, "Climate Change on Capitol Hill", in today's WaPo favors the passage of the climate change bill (America's Climate Security Act) introduced on Thursday by Sen. Warner (R) of Virginia and Sen. Lieberman (R-lite) of Connecticut. The Environmental Defense blog has a more comprehensive analysis of the bill.
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After Today, Slowly Feeling More Like Fall
Could it be? ... Another legitimate chance of rain?
Dan Stillman @ 8:45 AM
As you may have heard, Friday's showers and storms snapped Reagan National's record-breaking rainless streak at 34 days. With no rain over the weekend, a new streak has begun, but could end much more quickly than the last thanks to shower chances tomorrow. A different kind of streak is likely to continue through at least tomorrow, when National's high is expected above normal for the 33rd day in a row.
This is October? Courtesy of southerly flow, temperatures will warm to balmy highs in the range of 82-86 with low humidity. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with a breeze from the south near 10 mph. Tonight, becoming partly to mostly cloudy ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows from near 60 in the burbs to the mid 60s downtown.
Mostly cloudy ... showers likely. Look for a mostly cloudy and breezy day as a cold front closes in from the west. The clouds should keep high temperatures to the low-to-mid 70s -- though that's still about 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average -- and dewpoints in the 60s will feel kinda muggy. A line of showers and possibly thunderstorms (along the cold front) is likely to come through during the midday into evening. Precipitation amounts look to be in the range of .25"-.75". Overnight, a chance of showers early, then clearing skies and decreasing humidity with lows in the low 50s in town, mid 40s in the burbs.
Breezy, cooler, drier. Behind the cold front, gusty winds out of the northwest bring in cooler and drier air. Skies should be sunny with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Overnight, clear and cool with an eventually diminishing wind and lows in the mid-to-upper 40s in town, low 40s in the burbs.
Feelin' more like fall. All signs point to a spectacular day. With the center of high pressure parked nearby, light winds and low dewpoints together with abundant sunshine should allow crisp morning lows in the 40s to climb to afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Overnight, mostly clear with lows in the mid-to-upper 40s in town, low 40s in the burbs.
Pictured: The moon, photographed Saturday evening via telescope from Stafford, Va. By CapitalWeather.com visitor David Abbou.
Partly to mostly sunny, warmer. The flow should turn more southerly as high pressure shifts to the east, resulting in a partly to mostly sunny and warmer day with highs in the 70s. Overnight, increasing clouds and a chance of showers enters the picture as a cold front approaches. Lows should range from the upper 40s in the burbs to the mid 50s in town.
Saturday: potentially unsettled ... Sunday: sunny, breezy. A cold front in the vicinity could mean considerable clouds and a chance of showers on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70. But as of now, it looks like the front may be on its way out of here by late Friday, with breezy and clearing conditions moving in behind it for late Saturday and Sunday. The early outlook for Sunday is sunny and breezy with highs in the 60s.
Today
This is October? Courtesy of southerly flow, temperatures will warm to balmy highs in the range of 82-86 with low humidity. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with a breeze from the south near 10 mph. Tonight, becoming partly to mostly cloudy ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows from near 60 in the burbs to the mid 60s downtown.The Upcoming Week at a Glance
Warmest Day: Today, 82-86.
Coolest Days: Wednesday and Sunday, 60s.
Best Chance of Rain: Tomorrow.
Dry Days: Today, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday.
The Week's Wild Cards: How warm will it get today? Will tomorrow's showers make a dent in the drought? More showers on Saturday?
Average High/Low: 66-64/47-45
Warmest Day: Today, 82-86.
Coolest Days: Wednesday and Sunday, 60s.
Best Chance of Rain: Tomorrow.
Dry Days: Today, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday.
The Week's Wild Cards: How warm will it get today? Will tomorrow's showers make a dent in the drought? More showers on Saturday?
Average High/Low: 66-64/47-45
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy ... showers likely. Look for a mostly cloudy and breezy day as a cold front closes in from the west. The clouds should keep high temperatures to the low-to-mid 70s -- though that's still about 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average -- and dewpoints in the 60s will feel kinda muggy. A line of showers and possibly thunderstorms (along the cold front) is likely to come through during the midday into evening. Precipitation amounts look to be in the range of .25"-.75". Overnight, a chance of showers early, then clearing skies and decreasing humidity with lows in the low 50s in town, mid 40s in the burbs.Breezy, cooler, drier. Behind the cold front, gusty winds out of the northwest bring in cooler and drier air. Skies should be sunny with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Overnight, clear and cool with an eventually diminishing wind and lows in the mid-to-upper 40s in town, low 40s in the burbs.Feelin' more like fall. All signs point to a spectacular day. With the center of high pressure parked nearby, light winds and low dewpoints together with abundant sunshine should allow crisp morning lows in the 40s to climb to afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Overnight, mostly clear with lows in the mid-to-upper 40s in town, low 40s in the burbs.Pictured: The moon, photographed Saturday evening via telescope from Stafford, Va. By CapitalWeather.com visitor David Abbou.
Partly to mostly sunny, warmer. The flow should turn more southerly as high pressure shifts to the east, resulting in a partly to mostly sunny and warmer day with highs in the 70s. Overnight, increasing clouds and a chance of showers enters the picture as a cold front approaches. Lows should range from the upper 40s in the burbs to the mid 50s in town.Saturday: potentially unsettled ... Sunday: sunny, breezy. A cold front in the vicinity could mean considerable clouds and a chance of showers on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70. But as of now, it looks like the front may be on its way out of here by late Friday, with breezy and clearing conditions moving in behind it for late Saturday and Sunday. The early outlook for Sunday is sunny and breezy with highs in the 60s.
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Sunday, October 21, 2007
Delightfully Warm, Definitely Dry
Some rain possible by the middle of next week
Jason Samenow @ 7:45 AM
So far this month, it has already reached at least 80 degrees twelve times. Bear in mind, the average high to start October is just 74. Over the next several days, we should add at least two more 80 degree days to the tally with any rain holding off until at least Tuesday.
Blissful. A summer-like area of high pressure off the Southeast coast will steer warm but light southerly winds into the area. Expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures right around 80 degrees. Clear skies overnight, with lows from the low 50s in the suburbs to the mid to upper 50s downtown.
Pictured: The International Space Station (ISS) traveling through the Big Dipper last night. Skies were clear, promoting ideal star gazing. Photographed in Stafford, Va. by CapitalWeather.com visitor David Abbou.
Partly sunny and very warm. Warm southerly flow will persist, as will unseasonably warm conditions. High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above average, with most areas between 80-85.
The timing of a cold front Tuesday will determine how warm it is and when it rains. It could come through as early as Tuesday morning bringing a shot of rain then cooler conditions later in the day. Or it may slow as it approaches the region and then stall as low pressure develops along it. This second scenario would allow the warmth to linger and extend the possible duration of rain.
Right now, I'll call for a 60% chance of rain Tuesday, with highs in the 70s, and 40% chance of rain Wednesday with highs in the 60s. Dan will post additional details in Monday's week ahead forecast.
Andrew Freedman's Undercast Column is off this week.
Today
Blissful. A summer-like area of high pressure off the Southeast coast will steer warm but light southerly winds into the area. Expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures right around 80 degrees. Clear skies overnight, with lows from the low 50s in the suburbs to the mid to upper 50s downtown.Pictured: The International Space Station (ISS) traveling through the Big Dipper last night. Skies were clear, promoting ideal star gazing. Photographed in Stafford, Va. by CapitalWeather.com visitor David Abbou.
Monday
Partly sunny and very warm. Warm southerly flow will persist, as will unseasonably warm conditions. High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above average, with most areas between 80-85.A Look Ahead
The timing of a cold front Tuesday will determine how warm it is and when it rains. It could come through as early as Tuesday morning bringing a shot of rain then cooler conditions later in the day. Or it may slow as it approaches the region and then stall as low pressure develops along it. This second scenario would allow the warmth to linger and extend the possible duration of rain.
Right now, I'll call for a 60% chance of rain Tuesday, with highs in the 70s, and 40% chance of rain Wednesday with highs in the 60s. Dan will post additional details in Monday's week ahead forecast.
Andrew Freedman's Undercast Column is off this week.
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